Bitcoin is heading into the final stretch of 2025 with an unusual setup. Despite printing a new all-time high in October, the price has since pulled back enough to put the annual performance at risk of closing negative. That difference puts into context how the current cycle should be interpreted and what it means for Bitcoin’s price outlook. According to one analyst, the answer is less dramatic than it may appear at first glance, and Bitcoin might be about to enter into a bear market.
A Red Close Would Identify A Bear Market, Not A Broken Cycle
Bitcoin’s long-term price action has often followed a familiar rhythm, with three consecutive green yearly candles eventually giving way to a red close. This sequence has appeared multiple times since 2011, leading many traders to expect the same structure to repeat in the current cycle. This time, however, the pattern has shifted. Although both 2023 and 2024 closed in the green, 2025 is on track to finish negative, interrupting the usual progression.
Crypto analyst CryptoBullet noted that a red close for Bitcoin in 2025 would simply confirm that the cycle has transitioned into a bear phase, not that the four-year cycle is broken. In his view, the color of the yearly candle is often misunderstood. What matters most is where Bitcoin forms its cycle highs and lows, not whether a specific post-halving year finishes green or red.
He explains that if 2025 closes in the red, the yearly candle is likely to form a doji candlestick. In technical analysis, doji candles reflect indecision after strong upside expansion and often lead to trend reversals.
In this context, such a close would correspond with Bitcoin having already completed its cycle top earlier in October, when it reached a new peak of $126,080. In previous cycles, once a new high is set in the post-halving year, Bitcoin’s price action transitions into a prolonged corrective phase regardless of how that year ultimately closes.
Bitcoin Chart Image From X. Source: @CryptoBullet1
What To Expect For Bitcoin In 2026
Responding to comments on his technical analysis on X, Crypto analyst CryptoBullet reiterated that he is sticking with an analysis he first shared on December 2, which also proposes that Bitcoin’s cycle top is already in. Bitcoin opened 2025 around $93,396 and has since fallen well below its October peak, a structure he says closely resembles the post-top consolidation seen in 2019.
In that earlier cycle, Bitcoin spent months trading roughly 30% below its high while altcoins, measured through the OTHERS/BTC chart, formed a cycle bottom and began to recover. CryptoBullet believes the same dynamic is unfolding now, but on a larger scale, with altcoins having underperformed Bitcoin for nearly four years.
Bitcoin Bear Market Setup. Source: @CryptoBullet1 on X
Based on that setup, he expects a dead cat bounce in early 2026, accompanied by a short-lived rotation into altcoins, before a much deeper correction takes hold across Bitcoin as the bear market progresses.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
