USD/INR refreshes weekly low as lower Oil prices strengthen Indian Rupee

• The Indian Rupee gains further to near 85.80 against the US Dollar amid a positive market mood.
• Oil prices are likely to fall further if Israel and Iran keep to the truce.
• Fed’s Powell reiterates that the central bank needs more clarity on tariffs before reducing interest rates.

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) for fourth trading day on Wednesday, posts a fresh weekly high around 85.80 during the European session. The USD/INR pair slides further as the Indian currency strengthens on expectations that the Oil price could decline further, following confidence that both Israel and Iran will not violate the ceasefire agreement.

During the Asian trading session, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price seems fragile near an almost two-week low around $64.00.

Lower Oil price bodes well for currencies from nations that rely heavily on Oil imports to fulfil their energy needs, such as the Indian Rupee.

On Tuesday, United States (US) President Donald Trump stated in a post on Truth.Social that a truce between Israel and Iran has become effective and urged them not to violate. “The ceasefire is now in effect. Please do not violate it!” Trump wrote.

Meanwhile, the Indian equity market has extended their gains on lower Oil prices and improving investors’ risk appetite amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Nifty50 opens almost 100 points higher around 25,150, and Sensex30 jumps 0.83% above 82,400. On Tuesday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equity worth Rs. 5,266.01 crores.

USD/INR weakens even as Fed Powell reiterates need to hold interest rates steady

• The further downside move in the USD/INR pair is also driven by weakness in the US Dollar as easing geopolitical tensions have forced traders to pare bullish bets in safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, appears fragile near the weekly low around 98.00.
• The US currency struggles to gain ground even though Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell has signaled in the semi-annual testimony before the US House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday that he will not endorse interest rate cuts in the July policy meeting.
• Powell stated the central bank needs more time to “assess the impact of still-unresolved tariff rates on inflation and growth”. He guided that the “impact of the new trade policy will be reflected in the June and July data”.
• Jerome Powell didn’t rule out the scenario that the impact of new international policies could be “one-time” on inflation. He stated that the central bank will “bring interest rates down sooner if officials find price pressures well contained”.
• Contrary to Jerome Powell’s ‘wait-and-see’ approach, Fed officials: Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Governor Christopher Waller, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee have expressed confidence that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be limited and have warned of growing downside risks to the labor market. Fed officials Waller and Bowman also expressed the need to reduce interest rates as soon as July to avoid further cracks in the job market.
• Going forward, investors will focus on New Home Sales data for May, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. Economists expect households to have bought 0.7 million homes, slightly lower than 0.743 million in April. Investors will closely monitor the housing data as the latest studies showed that households postponed new home demand due to higher mortgage rates and uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policy.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR slides to near 85.80

The USD/INR pair skids below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 86.00, suggesting that the near-term trend has become uncertain.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides vertically below 50.00 after remaining above 60.00 in past few trading days, indicating a strong bearish reversal.

Looking down, the June 12 high at 85.70 will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the June 24 high of 86.60 will be a critical hurdle for the pair.

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