Citing two US officials on Monday, Reuters reported that the US assesses a high risk of an Iranian retaliation against the US forces soon and added that the US is still pursuing a diplomatic resolution, per Reuters.
One of the officials told Reuters that an Iranian retaliation could come as soon as the next day or two.
Market reaction
The US Dollar (USD) preserves its strength following these remarks. At the time of press, the USD Index was up 0.52% on the day at 99.28.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.1500
Following the U-turn in the US Dollar, EUR/USD rose to the 1.1550 region on Monday, where a decent resistance seems to have emerged so far. In the meantime, the Greenback continues to suffer the dovish message from FOMC’s Bowman, while geopolitical concerns continue to limit the downside.
Could Iran block the Strait of Hormuz? Why Oil is on edge after US strikes
As the Israel-Iran conflict reaches new heights, an old threat is coming back to haunt the markets: that of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow arm of the sea in the Persian Gulf, wedged between Iran to the north and the United Arab Emirates and Oman to the south, is much more than a simple sea passage.
Gold trades near $3,400 on geopolitical fears
Gold maintains its bullish bias on Monday, trading at shouting distance from the key $3,400 mark per troy ounce on the back of increasing geopolitical tensions after Iran announced a missile attack to the US military base in the UAE.
GBP/USD climbs to daily highs around 1.3480
After bottoming out in multi-week lows near 1.3370, GBP/USD now picks up pace and gains around a cent to hit new daily peaks around 1.3480 in response to fresh selling pressure hitting the Greenback. The knee-jerk in the US Dollar comes despite steady fears on the Iran-Israel-US front and firm results from preliminary US PMIs for the month of June. On the UK docket, all the attention remains on upcoming flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs.
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