- The S&P Global flash PMIs for July are seen improving further, suggesting the US economy continued to expand.
- Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep its interest rates unchanged at the end of the month.
- EUR/USD manages to regain some pace and flirts with the 1.1700 area.
S&P Global will release on Thursday its preliminary July Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the United States, based on surveys of top private sector executives, to provide an early indication of economic momentum.
The report includes three measures: the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI, and the Composite PMI (a weighted combination of the two), each calibrated such that numbers above 50 indicate growth and readings below that threshold indicate contraction.
These monthly snapshots, released far ahead of many official figures, analyse everything from production and export patterns to capacity utilisation, employment, and inventory levels, offering some of the earliest signs of the economy’s direction.
The Composite PMI ticked down marginally to 52.9 in June from 53.0 the previous month. According to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, “The US service sector reported a welcome combination of sustained growth and increased hiring in June but also reported elevated price pressures, all of which could add to pressure on policymakers to remain cautious with regard to any further loosening of monetary policy.”
What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?
Investors anticipate a little increase in July’s flash Manufacturing PMI from 52.0 to 52.5, while the Services PMI is projected to rise from 52.9 to 53.0.
Although a minor decline may not scare markets, any resilience – or rebound – above the 50-point level might alleviate lingering economic fears, particularly if service sector momentum remains strong.
Investors will focus on the PMIs’ granular inflation and employment measures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that inflation is projected to accelerate in reaction to US tariffs, causing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a cautious tone. Despite some Fed officials suggesting a quarter-point rate decrease as early as later this month, the market consensus expects the Fed to stay on the sidelines.
A significant upside surprise in the services PMI, along with a strong print from the manufacturing gauge, would likely bolster the US Dollar by confirming the idea of a healthy economy, hence supporting the Fed’s conservative attitude.
In contrast, evidence of easing pricing pressures and weak private sector hiring might reignite prospects for more monetary easing, weighing on the US Dollar.
When will the July flash US S&P Global PMIs be released, and how could they affect EUR/USD?
The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs report will be released at 13:45 GMT and is expected to show US business activity extending the gain of momentum observed in the last readings.
Ahead of the release, Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, warns that the continuation of the ongoing recovery of the EUR/USD pair could see it challenge its yearly peak of 1.1830 (July 1), ahead of the September 2021 high at 1.1909 (September 3), and the critical milestone at 1.2000.
Alternatively, Piovano notes that the resurgence of the selling pressure should meet initial support at the monthly floor of 1.1556 (July 17), prior to the interim 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1491, and the weekly base of 1.1445 (June 19).
“While above the 200-day SMA at 1.0910, the pair’s bullish stance should remain unchanged,” Piovano adds.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Economic Indicator
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
Last release: Tue Jul 01, 2025 13:45
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 52.9
Consensus: –
Previous: –
Source: S&P Global
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