Polymarket gives US stablecoin bill 89% chance of becoming law

The platform launched the betting market for the GENIUS Act after the US Senate passed it on Tuesday.

Cryptocurrency users are betting on the odds that US legislation to regulate payment stablecoins will move forward, following a crucial vote in the Senate and a public push from President Donald Trump to “get it to [his] desk.”

As of Thursday, the online betting platform Polymarket shows an 89% chance of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, or GENIUS Act, passing the US Senate and House of Representatives and being signed into law by the president before 2026. The Polymarket bet seemed to have been launched roughly 18 hours after the bill passed in the Senate in a 68-30 vote on Tuesday.

Law, Betting, United States, Stablecoin — *Betting on the GENIUS Act as of Thursday. Source:* *Polymarket*

It’s unclear whether the bill will have enough support to pass the House in its current form or whether lawmakers could add amendments to address concerns over Trump’s connections to the crypto industry, including World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1. A majority of senators voted against a similar amendment before the final passage of the GENIUS Act, which moved the legislation to the House.

Depending on the final shape of the bill, it could open the floodgates for US companies to issue their own stablecoins to settle transactions. Tech giants like Apple and Google were reportedly considering their own tokens, and two US senators forwarded questions to Meta on whether the company might have the same plans if the bill were to be signed into law.

Heading to the House and then Trump’s desk?

Trump has suggested he will sign the GENIUS Act with “no add ons” if the House were to pass it quickly. Republicans have a slim majority in the chamber and may soon face a floor vote on a bill to establish a crypto market structure framework. The CLARITY Act, which passed out of committee last week, could clarify the roles US financial regulators would have over digital assets.

Odds on Polymarket do not necessarily offer insight as to whether US lawmakers will pass the bill or Trump will sign it into law. Rather, the platform shows how much some crypto users are willing to wager on one or more particular outcomes.

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