Pantera Capital’s adherence to the Bitcoin halving cycle enabled it to predict Bitcoin’s price with striking accuracy in 2022, underscoring how the asset’s supply schedule can influence valuations, even as skepticism about the cycles grows.
In November of that year, Pantera published a price chart mapping Bitcoin’s (BTC) halving rallies and showing diminishing returns after each four-year epoch. Factoring in the typical timing between market bottoms and post-halving rallies, the firm projected Bitcoin would hit $117,482 by Aug. 11, 2025.
On Aug. 11, Bitcoin closed above $119,000, according to Coin Metrics data cited by CNBC.
Amid a flood of Bitcoin price predictions, Pantera’s stood out for its remarkable accuracy. At the time of its original forecast, Bitcoin was headed toward a cycle low below $16,000 — a level it reached on Nov. 21, 2022, according to Bitbo.
Bitcoin is now trading near $120,000, up more than 660% from its 2022 low.
The rally underscores the predictive strength of Bitcoin’s four-year price cycles, which align closely with its halving events and generally follow a pattern of post-halving rally, cycle peak, correction and accumulation.
Analysts such as Bob Loukas also apply cycle theory to map Bitcoin’s highs and lows. Loukas correctly identified the start of a new four-year cycle in January 2023, less than two months after Bitcoin hit its bottom.
Related: Bitcoin ‘demand generation’ phase mirrors 2022 market bottom — Are new highs incoming?
Will institutional adoption change the Bitcoin cycle narrative?
Each Bitcoin halving cycle brings fresh narratives about why “this time is different” and why the four-year cycle pattern is destined to fade.
To their credit, those predicting the erosion of these dynamics have a strong point this time: Bitcoin has never been this institutionalized, with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporations holding millions of BTC.
Beginning in January 2024, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs have become the most successful ETF debut in history. ETFs now hold 7.1% of Bitcoin’s supply — about 1.491 million BTC, according to Bitbo. Public and private companies together account for another 1.36 million BTC.
Author and investor Jason Williams has pointed to the rise of Bitcoin treasury-holding companies as a reason he believes “the Bitcoin 4 year cycle is over.”
Bitcoin advocate Pierre Rochard agreed, noting: “Halvings are immaterial to trading float, 95% of BTC have been mined, supply comes from buying out OGs, demand is the sum of spot retail, ETPs getting added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies.”
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