How Prediction Markets Reacted to South Park’s Episode on… Prediction Markets

Satirical cartoon South Park hasn’t been pulling its punches this season, taking aim at everything from the Trump administration to its own broadcasters.

Last night’s episode, “Conflict of Interest,” turned its gaze on prediction markets, with the children of South Park quickly becoming obsessed with the latest fad.

“People can make any bet they want and users take them up on it,” as the character Stan explained. When Cartman touts a market on whether Kyle’s mom would “strike Gaza and destroy a Palestinian hospital,” the irate Kyle takes his case up with FCC chair Brendan Carr.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, prediction markets seized on the free publicity afforded by South Park, launching their own markets on what might be mentioned during the episode—including whether they themselves would be named.

In the event, South Park singled out Polymarket and Kalshi as the targets of its scabrous criticism—but the majority of predictions across all platforms failed to forecast whether leading prediction markets would be named during the episode.

On Myriad, a prediction market launched by Decrypt’s parent company DASTAN, just over 27% of predictions expected the episode to mention it, Polymarket or Kalshi ahead of broadcast.

Kalshi and Polymarket users saw the chance of their respective platforms being mentioned hovering around 20% immediately before the episode aired.

That’s not necessarily a surprising result, DASTAN CEO Loxley Fernandes told Decrypt, who argued that it is “fundamentally incorrect” to consider prediction markets as “the new source of truth.”

“While prediction markets can help us root out truth or information in ways that traditional reporting and polling can’t, we have to remember that prediction markets are simply a financialized form of consumer sentiment aggregation,” he explained.

As for why consumer sentiment was wide of the mark in the case of South Park, Fernandes pointed out that prediction market users may have expected South Park to parody prediction markets in general, rather than naming specific companies.

“Users may have assumed that platforms like South Park Studios would utilize satire and appeal to humor by creating comical derivative names of prediction markets, instead of just saying Kalshi or Polymarket,” he said, adding that they might also have anticipated that “copyright or trademark infringement issues” would prevent South Park from using actual brand names.

In retrospect, perhaps predictors should’ve been bolder in their assumptions. South Park has never shied away from satirizing well-known companies in the past, having previously skewered the likes of Apple, Disney and SpaceX.