The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3425 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday, pressured by renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. Traders brace for the US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data later on Wednesday.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% YoY in December, matching November’s increase, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday. This figure aligned with the market consensus. Meanwhile, the core CPI, excluding fluctuating food and energy costs, increased by 2.6% YoY in December, versus November’s 2.7% rise. This reading came in softer than the 2.7% expected.
“The initial excitement sparked by a cooler-than-anticipated core CPI was short-lived,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “The reversal was influenced, in part, by the report’s failure to pull forward the next expected rate reduction from June to April, as fixed-income watchers project Powell’s December cut will be his last at the helm.”
Renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve (Fed) independence could drag the Greenback lower. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Sunday that the Fed has received subpoenas from the Justice Department over statements he made to Congress last summer on cost overruns for a $2.5 billion building renovation project at the central bank’s headquarters in Washington. Powell termed the threats a “pretext” for putting pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates.
However, a dovish stance from the BoE could undermine the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the USD. The Bank of England (BoE) cut its interest rate to 3.75% in the December policy meeting and is expected to implement further reduction in 2026 as inflation eases, though officials note future decisions will be “closer calls.” Many analysts believe the UK central bank will hold rates steady in February, with the next 0.25% cut most likely to occur in March or April this year.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
