Dogecoin Reclaims Bullish Structure as Whale Activity Hits 2-Month Low

Retail investors drove the rally, while whale transactions fell to their lowest in two months.

Updated Dec 4, 2025, 4:26 a.m. Published Dec 4, 2025, 4:26 a.m.

Dogecoin pushed through key resistance with its strongest volume in weeks, signaling retail-driven momentum even as whale activity fell to multi-month lows.

News Background

• Dogecoin’s latest move unfolded against a backdrop of modest but steady ETF participation.
• The two newly launched U.S. spot Dogecoin ETFs — Grayscale’s GDOG and Bitwise’s BWOW — recorded $177,250 in net inflows on December 3, bringing cumulative inflows since launch to $2.85 million, according to SoSoValue data.
• While not explosive, the flows indicate early-stage adoption among traditional investors as regulated DOGE products begin to establish a foothold. The broader memecoin market remained subdued, but continued ETF demand provided a small yet notable tailwind as DOGE attempted to reclaim key technical levels.

Technical Analysis

• DOGE’s structure strengthened notably as price confirmed an ascending channel built across three higher lows at $0.1469, $0.1488, and $0.1512. This pattern reflects sustained accumulation, with volume expanding sharply on every upward leg and contracting during pullbacks—exact behavior traders look for when differentiating true trend shifts from noise.
• The breakout above $0.1505 marked the first resistance clearance since late November. Tuesday’s volume expansion—triple the daily average—reinforced the legitimacy of the move.
• Despite declining whale involvement, the chart shows constructive momentum: upward-sloping support, increasing amplitude on each breakout attempt, and clean reactions to intraday dips.
• Importantly, DOGE maintains structural integrity above the $0.1470 support band. This area now acts as the technical pivot for continuation and defines the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
• On a higher timeframe, the $0.138 region remains the major structural floor aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and 200-week moving average—levels that continue to attract long-term buyers.

Price Action Summary

• DOGE opened with steady accumulation before breaking resistance at $0.1505. The rally accelerated around 14:00 GMT as the volume spike hit 874.7M tokens. Price briefly pulled back to $0.1513 before buyers reasserted control, confirming the new support.
• Intraday action displayed clean bid absorption at each higher low while the upper channel boundary guided rallies toward the $0.1530 region. The session closed inside the upper half of the day’s range, signaling bulls maintained dominance.

What Traders Should Know

• $0.1470 is now the key support level; holding it preserves the breakout structure
• Immediate upside target sits at $0.1530, with $0.1580-$0.1600 as the next resistance band
• Volume confirmation remains essential — a drop back below average may slow continuation
• Retail-driven rallies can accelerate quickly but also fade without institutional reinforcement
• Loss of $0.1470 risks a deeper pullback toward $0.1430 and, in extreme cases, the $0.138 macro support

What Do Technicals Suggest For DOGE?

• Market structure shows early signs of a momentum shift, backed by mixed but improving indicator signals. Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a fresh “Buy” signal on Dogecoin’s weekly chart using the TD Sequential indicator — a tool designed to identify trend exhaustion and potential reversal points.
• Historically, TD Sequential “Buy” signals on DOGE have preceded sharp multi-week rallies, making the appearance of a new signal notable as the coin tests the upper boundary of its ascending channel.
• However, not all indicators align cleanly. TradingView’s Bull Bear Power tool — which measures the balance between bullish and bearish pressure — flashed a sell signal, suggesting sellers still maintain influence during intraday swings.
• In contrast, the MACD indicator, which tracks momentum through moving-average convergence and divergence, flipped bullish as the MACD line crossed above its signal line, typically interpreted as building upside momentum.
• Together, the mixed indicator profile implies DOGE is in the early stages of a potential trend transition, where bullish momentum is emerging but not yet dominant.
• Traders are watching for confirmation through sustained closes above resistance and rising volume, both of which would validate the TD Sequential signal and negate short-term bearish readings.

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