The founder of CryptoQuant doesn’t think Bitcoin will see a major crash of more than 50% like past bear markets and instead sees sideways action ahead.
Bitcoin Has Seen A Slowdown In Realized Cap Recently
In a new post on X, CrypotQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has talked about how capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up recently. The on-chain indicator that Young Ju has cited is the “Realized Cap,” which measures the cryptocurrency’s total value by assuming that the value of each token in circulation is equal to the last time that it changed hands.
In short, what the Realized Cap signifies is the total amount of capital that the investors of the asset as a whole have put into the network. Changes in the metric, therefore, signify the exit or entry of capital relative to BTC. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap enjoyed sharp growth between late 2023 and late 2025, indicating that the coin was receiving continuous injections of capital.
Recently, however, the uptrend in the indicator has seemingly broken, with its value facing a small net decline. In the past, bull markets have coincided with an upward trajectory in the Realized Cap, with a transition to weak inflows or net outflows leading into bearish phases.
Considering that the metric’s trend is now hinting at the latter type of market conditions, it’s possible that a bearish transition might be occurring for the cryptocurrency. That said, the analyst has pointed out that the latest cycle isn’t the same as the ones from before.
“Liquidity channels are more diverse now, so timing inflows is pointless,” noted Young Ju. “Institutions holding long-term killed the old whale-retail sell cycle.” Examples of demand channels that didn’t exist before include treasury companies like Strategy and investment vehicles like the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
“I don’t think we’ll see a -50%+ crash from ATH like past bear markets,” said the CryptoQuant founder. “Just boring sideways for the next few months.” It now remains to be seen what trajectory Bitcoin will end up following.
In some other news, on-chain demand as gauged by the Realized Cap isn’t the only one that has declined recently. As CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has highlighted in an X post, demand from retail investors has also been missing.
In the chart, the metric shown is the 30-day percentage change in the volume associated with the retail investors, the smallest of hands on the network. This indicator has been negative lately, implying that the volume of transactions valued at less $10,000 has been declining on a monthly timeframe.
This hasn’t changed even after the recent recovery surge in Bitcoin. “The crowd hasn’t returned—yet,” noted Maartunn.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $89,900, up 2% in the last seven days.
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
