The Bitcoin price has slowed down after a relatively hot start to the year, as it appears that not much has structurally changed for the market leader. A crypto analyst recently revealed that the premier cryptocurrency continues to trade beneath a critical price threshold.
Why The Present Scenario Raises Caution Among Investors
In a January 10 post on social media platform X, analyst Ali Martinez shared that the Bitcoin price has continued to trade underneath its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). This not-so-optimistic trend, according to the crypto pundit, has been ongoing for the past nine weeks.
For context, the 50-week SMA is a long-term technical indicator that calculates, on average, the closing price of an asset — in this case, Bitcoin — over the past 50 weeks. This indicator is particularly useful in establishing points of dynamic support and resistance during differing market cycles. For example, it functions as support during bull markets and acts as resistance in bear markets.
When Bitcoin trades above the 50W SMA, it is often a sign that the market is in a strong uptrend. Contrarily, when the Bitcoin price trades beneath this dynamic resistance level for an extended period, it indicates that upside momentum is weakening and that major corrections might soon ensue.
Interestingly, historical data is the source of this observation. From the chart shared below, there are recurrent periods where the Bitcoin price stayed consistently below the 50W SMA. In those past cycles, these periods of prolonged deviation beneath the 50W SMA preceded major pullbacks for BTC, which often ranged between 50% to 70%.
Notably, the pullbacks seen did not end Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend. Rather — as is typical of corrections — they likely served as reset phases, where excessive leverage was wiped out of the market in preparation for the next long-term continuations.
As a result, concerns have been raised among Bitcoin market participants, considering the similarity of the current setup to past ones. If history were to repeat itself here, the Bitcoin price could see a pullback by at least 50%, with the price falling to levels as low as $50,000.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
On a more positive note, the Bitcoin price still has a chance to escape the snares of its historical woes. For this to happen, the world’s leading cryptocurrency would have to reclaim the 50-week moving average and hold above it for prolonged periods. As of press time, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $90,352, reflecting no movement in the past day.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
