Key takeaways:
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80% of all Bitcoin is now being hodl’d, a historical signal for upcoming rallies.
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A break above the $110,000 resistance could lead to increased volatility, with some traders anticipating a rise to $130,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has previously rallied as much as 84% when the BTC supply held by long-term holders rose above 80%. A similar fractal is now playing out, hinting at an intensifying supply shock and a potential breakout for BTC price.
Bitcoin gained 72% and 84% the last two times
Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) — or entities holding coins for at least 155 days — show stronger holding patterns despite BTC price trading close to all-time highs.
Analyzing the LTH supply change, popular crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto said the supply has increased to 80%, signaling strong conviction among this investor cohort.
“Over 80% of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist is currently being HODL’d,” the analyst said in a Tuesday post on X, referring to the term for the most popular Bitcoin investment strategy.
Related: Bitcoin Mayer Multiple shows $108K BTC price undervalued: Analysis
Over Bitcoin’s 15-year history, supply held by LTHs has only been over 80% twice. These were February 2024 and October 2024, preceding 72% and 84% BTC price rallies, respectively.
When the majority of BTC’s total circulating supply is held by “diamond hands”, price moves up aggressively at the hint of any “new” demand, CrediBULL Crypto explained, adding:
“Now that ‘excess’ supply has found its way back in the hands of long term holders and with Bitcoin treasury companies leading the way, the next impulse is imminent. This next one will also likely be even bigger than the last two ($50,000+.”Who’s ready for 150k+ Bitcoin?
In BTC terms, the total supply held by LTHs hit an all-time high of 14.7 million BTC on June 5, worth about $1.6 trillion.
⚡️ BULLISH: Long-term Bitcoin holders have reached an all-time high, with supply held for 155+ days signaling strong conviction and reduced sell pressure. pic.twitter.com/kF1dMvsFcF
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) July 5, 2025
This trend, coupled with steady purchasing from institutional investors, suggests a scenario where a high percentage of Bitcoin’s supply becomes illiquid, amplifying BTC’s potential to blast higher when demand increases.
Bitcoin traders position for a rise to $130,000
Bitcoin traders are anticipating renewed bullish price volatility, as evidenced by their growing positions in September $130,000 call options on Deribit.
These call options, which give buyers the right to purchase Bitcoin at a predetermined price, signal expectations of bullish volatility, with traders anticipating Bitcoin’s potential breakout from the current $100,000–$110,000 range.
“Vols remain pinned near historical lows, but a decisive breach of the $110,000 resistance could spark a renewed volatility bid. Some larger players appear to be positioning for just that,” Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a July 7 Telegram note to investors, adding:
“They are continuing to add exposure to September $130,000 calls, while steadfastly holding September $115,000/$140,000 call spreads, underscoring a structurally bullish Q3 outlook.”
The BTC/USDT three-month liquidation heatmap shows the big liquidity clusters sitting just above $110,000, per data from CoinGlass. Heavy ask orders are also sitting around $122,000 up to $130,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
