The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar is one of the worst performers on Thursday, with investors rushing for safety as the Israel-Iran conflict threatens to escalate into a global war, with the US jumping in.
The AUD/USD depreciates 0.6% so far today, giving away Wednesday’s gains, as and approaches the bottom of the last three weeks’ trading range, at the 0.6445-0.6455 area, which contained bearish attempts on June 3 and 13.
US President Trump’s ambiguous answer when he was asked about a potential intervention in the Middle East conflict put investors on edge on Wednesday. A news report suggesting that US senior officials would be preparing for a possible strike on Iran soured risk sentiment further today.
In Australia, May’s unemployment figures failed to provide any substantial support to the Aussie. The jobless rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, but net employment fell by 2,500, suggesting that the labor market is losing steam.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left rates on hold while the bank’s interest rate projections, the so-called Dot Plot, kept hopes of two more cuts for this year. Chairman Powell, however, struck a hawkish tone, warning about the inflationary impact of tariffs during the ensuing press release, and the US Dollar bounced higher.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
