Bitcoin (BTC) started a new week with a fresh sell-off, and traders are split over where it will head next.
BTC price action has dipped $10,000 since its latest all-time high just days ago, leading to comparisons with the 2021 top.
Order-book manipulation may be to blame, analysis argued; a large entity may be “buying the dip.”
The US Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium is due, with the US inflation fight contrasting with hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace settlement.
Bitcoin hodlers may have less time to enjoy gains as the latest uptrend enters its seventh week.
In a “strange” development, BTC price weakness is diverging from a positive Coinbase premium.
Bitcoin price has “reduced” breakout odds this week
A swift sell-off disturbed a calm weekly close for BTC/USD on Monday, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.
Just days after its latest all-time high above $124,500, the pair shed 2% in hours, bringing its total drawdown since the peak to over $10,000.
Commenting on the current market structure, traders were quick to call new local lows in the coming days.
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) August 18, 2025
Trading platform Material Indicators even dismissed Bitcoin possibly holding its 21-day simple moving average (SMA), flagging a “pretty solid” down signal on one of its proprietary trading tools.
“That doesn’t guarantee a nuke, but it drastically reduces the probability of a $BTC breakout this week,” it wrote in its latest post on X.
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades gave $112,000 as the BTC price level to watch to the downside, as well as a break of $120,000 in the event of a reversal.
“These early week moves do have the tendency to retrace but let’s see how the US Market does today,” he told X followers.
Some were more concerned about the long-term impact of recent price behavior. Fellow trader Roman, long wary of market weakness, stressed that low volume had failed to cement the latest highs.
“Now $BTC is down $10,000 from prior highs. The lack of volume has been extremely concerning for the past few months,” he said.
“To me it’s distribution. Everything still lining up like 2021.”
Roman referred to Bitcoin’s last bull market, which ended in late 2021 after a blow-off top at $69,000, a level that remained as resistance for several years and which triggered the start of a 77% bear market drawdown.
Analysis sees manipulation and “buying the dip”
While crypto market manipulation is rarely considered positive, Bitcoin may be experiencing undue sell-side pressure, which is not reflective of true demand.
This is the conclusion from popular trader CrypNuevo, who in his latest X thread argued that the snap BTC price dip was anything but organic.
“Bitcoin made a new ATH, but then a manipulated organized move dumped price causing $1B in liquidations in 24h. At the same time that retail was getting stopped out & liquidated… a hand bought all those liquidations,” he said.
A large-volume buyer on crypto exchange HTX, CrypNuevo argued, was simply attempting to buy in at lower levels before the uptrend continues.
“It’s probable that they ‘stopped the train’ to get a few more buys before it goes again. So it’s possible that we see some consolidation, maybe choppy PA, for some days before reclaiming again that $120k level,” he continued.
“Once price can sustain above $120k, we should see a good move up.”
Exchange order-book data from CoinGlass showed how price sliced through bid liquidity, with $114,000 the area of interest at the time of writing.
Jackson Hole meets Ukraine peace hopes
This week, the Federal Reserve’s annual policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is the event on every trader’s calendar.
Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Friday in what promises to be a risky climax for market uncertainty over future policy, specifically, interest rates.
“Investor attention will be fixated on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, and how the Fed is viewing the balance of risks between recent weak labor market data and rising inflation,” trading company Mosaic Asset confirmed in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic.
“Past speeches by Powell have delivered insights on the metrics that central bank officials are tracking to make policy decisions.”
🇺🇸 UPDATE: Fed Chair Powell is set to speak on Friday, Aug. 22 at 10:00 A.M. ET on economic outlook and framework review. pic.twitter.com/CU7BRxC7D8
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) August 18, 2025
The Fed is caught between rising inflation and weakening labor-market data, making neither raising nor lowering rates an attractive option.
Analyzing current employment trends, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter warned that a “generational jobs crisis” may begin.
“Now, the youth underemployment rate has climbed by ~5 percentage points over the last 2 years. This is nearly in line with the peak during the 2001 recession and the early stages of the 2008 Financial Crisis,” it observed in part of an X post at the weekend.
“This also signals the US labor market could weaken further, with young workers typically the first to feel the impact when the economy turns. The job market is rapidly deteriorating.”
At the same time, Powell is under intense pressure from Washington, particularly President Donald Trump, to cut rates significantly. Trump has repeatedly called Powell “too late” in doing so, and the latter’s successor is due to be unveiled shortly.
Risk-asset volatility, meanwhile, may end up heightened amid ongoing negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Kobeissi described Monday’s upcoming meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “crucial.” Markets are already “pricing in” a peace settlement.
End of “price discovery uptrend”?
While seeing multiple short-term corrections, Bitcoin has enjoyed six weeks of solid uptrend.
As week seven begins, however, trader Rekt Capital had a word of warning for bulls. Bitcoin bull market uptrend phases, he noted on Sunday, have a habit of reversing after five to seven weeks.
“Historically, Bitcoin Price Discovery Uptrend 1 tends to end between Week 6 & 8 of its uptrend. Whereas in Price Discovery Uptrend 2, Bitcoin tends to end its uptrend between Week 5 & 7,” he said.
“Week 7 of Price Discovery Uptrend 2 begins tomorrow.”
An accompanying chart showed the various up and down phases of the current bull market, measured from Bitcoin’s 2024 block subsidy halving. The chart gives a near-term target of just under $160,000.
Continuing the latest uptrend into an eighth week would place it in the top segment of history, echoing the 2017 bull market.
Bitcoin’s first major correction of 2025, which followed the end of the first uptrend, saw a 30% drawdown and local lows of just under $75,000.
Coinbase premium divergence raises eyebrows
Despite the latest price drawdown, a popular US demand metric suggested that market momentum remained intact.
Related: Coinbase calls for ‘full-scale’ alt season, Ether eyes $6K: Hodler’s Digest, Aug. 10 – 16
The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference in BTC prices between the Coinbase BTC/USD and Binance BTC/USDT pairs, is in positive territory this week.
A positive premium implies that Coinbase investor demand is creating a price gap with the largest global exchange, Binance, an encouraging sign for US demand trajectory.
The last time the premium dipped below neutral into the red was on Aug. 12. BTC/USD made a fresh all-time high the day after, but while price failed to hold, the premium has stayed buoyant.
“After few days of negative premium, the Coinbase Premium is showing strength again,” onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant said in one of its Quicktake blog posts on Monday.
“Is this the start of a new leg?”
Considering the curious divergence between price and the premium, popular trader Cas Abbe nonetheless described the situation as “strange.”
“Coinbase Bitcoin Premium is at its highest level in a month, and BTC is going down. Now this could mean 2 things,” he suggested to X followers.
“Either the buyer is Saylor only, who has been twapping for days. Or, some big entities are accumulating in silence before a big event. Maybe someone knows about Russia-Ukraine peace deal.”
Abbe referred to Michael Saylor, CEO of technology firm Strategy, which has been adding BTC to its corporate treasury almost weekly throughout 2025. “TWAP,” or time-weighted average price, is a form of investment method where a large order is filled in multiple small batches at regular intervals, helping to minimize market slippage.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
