OPEC was the last of the three agencies to present its monthly update of its forecasts this week, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.
OPEC remains significantly more optimistic than the IEA
“There were no revisions to the demand forecast, as the lower level of global oil demand presented in the annual five-year outlook last week had already been taken into account here. However, with global oil demand rising by 1.3 million barrels per day, OPEC remains significantly more optimistic than the IEA, which expects demand to rise by only half as much.”
“The report provided a little more clarity regarding Saudi Arabia’s oil production. It distinguished between production, which was reported at 9.75 million barrels per day and thus significantly above the target, and market supply, which was just under 400,000 barrels per day lower.”
“Partly because of this distinction, we believe it is likely that the high production was rather a one-off and that Saudi Arabia will cut back its output again; but it will probably refrain from compensatory production cuts. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister also pointed out in a statement that the country was in line with the quotas and that large quantities had flowed into storage. Official figures for exports in June will not be reported for another month.”
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