Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in full recovery mode as bulls erase Israel-Iran losses. What’s next for BTC price action?
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A solid weekly close and a trip past $107,000 put BTC/USD in a strong position as Wall Street returns.
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A tense Fed interest rate decision is due, amid fears that an oil price surge could add to inflation.
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In a rare show of solidarity, both Bitcoin whales and retail investors are staying in “hodl” mode at current prices.
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Perp markets continue to display a discount to spot, leading to expectations of a short squeeze resulting.
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BTC price targets are conspicuously bullish, with $200,000 or more still on the table and no technical signs of a long-term top.
Liquidity in focus as weekly close preserves $105,000
After a relatively flat weekly close, Bitcoin is busy clawing back lost ground as it passes $107,000 to start the week.
With that, much of the downside that came as a snap reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict has been canceled out, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
“Closed the weekly over $104,500, which is a very good sign. Just need to hold over now,” an optimistic response from popular trader Crypto Tony on X stated.
Blocks of ask liquidity above spot price at the weekly open received a visit into the first Wall Street trading session, with analyst Mark Cullen seeing the likelihood for liquidity below price to also get taken.
📈 #Bitcoin liquidity sandwich 🥪$BTC holding on around the 105k level, with liquidity tightly surrounding price to the upside and down. Likely we see both sides run today IMO.#Crypto #BTC https://t.co/BQUPz9oZik pic.twitter.com/SobZ2tWZAr
— AlphaBTC (@mark_cullen) June 16, 2025
Monitoring resource CoinGlass also flagged order book liquidity as a key potential short-term price magnet, with $104,000 of particular interest.
“$BTC is moving in a small range this month, just 10% between high and low,” analyst and YouTube host Rananjay Singh continued.
“But in the last 4 years, every month moved more than this. This tells us a big move is coming, up or down.”
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on traders’ requirements for support retests, with $100,000 in focus as an important level for bulls to protect.
FOMC week dawns in the shadow of oil surge
The Federal Reserve interest rate decision marks the week’s macroeconomic highlight, with geopolitical events raising the stakes in its fight against inflation.
The Wednesday meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is currently slated to continue the ongoing pause in rate cuts in place throughout 2025, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
While markets had long priced out the odds of a cut coming before September, pressure from US President Donald Trump puts the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell in an awkward position.
Powell’s language at the FOMC press conference will thus be keenly watched by market participants looking for signs of a shift in stance.
The meeting comes as a surge in oil and commodities threatens to upend US inflation expectations, with trade tariffs yet to show in macro data.
“After dropping below key support at the $66 level, oil prices have staged a massive reversal on geopolitical tensions and fears over Middle East oil supplies,” trading firm Mosaic Asset wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
“Along with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hitting the lowest level in over three years, the developments are sending broad commodity indexes near a key multi-year resistance level. A breakout would have significant implications on the inflation outlook in the months ahead.”
A silver lining for Bitcoin may lie in historical precedent. Both a weak dollar and strong oil have acted as BTC price catalysts in the past.
In its latest X analysis, however, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter saw a different outcome already emerging.
“While all of the headlines point to more escalation and a longer war, the stock market says the EXACT OPPOSITE. Equity markets have turned green, oil prices are now up just +0.5%, and gold is down just -0.5%,” it noted on Monday.
“If the market were truly concerned about a long-term conflict, oil prices would have already crossed above $100/barrel. In fact, oil prices are more than 10% BELOW their high recorded last week.”
Kobeissi concluded that some form of “peace deal” was being priced in.
Whales and retail agree: BTC is a “hodl”
Bitcoin whales, the “smart money” of the BTC ecosystem, often diverge from retail investors in a given market environment.
As Cointelegraph has explained, large-volume traders tend to buy long before mainstream consumers, distributing coins at a profit to the market when retail is only just beginning to add exposure.
The latest data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, however, shows a rare consensus emerging among both whales and smaller entities.
At around $106,000, Bitcoin is a firm “hold” across the investor spectrum.
“Today, Binance BTC inflows from both groups have dropped to their lowest levels since the beginning of this cycle,” contributor Darkfost wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on June 15.
“This pattern indicates a strong preference for holding rather than selling. Notably, both whales and retail investors appear aligned in their approach, a highly constructive signal for the market.”
CryptoQuant data contrasts the current mood with that of late 2024 when BTC/USD was making all-time highs for the first time in seven months.
Then, as now, whales and retail acted “in sync,” albeit by unanimously opting to send coins to exchanges for sale.
“Aside from the consistent inflows observed early in the cycle, there were two key moments when whales and retail investors acted in sync. These periods coincided with previous market tops, during which synchronized inflows into Binance were clearly visible from both investor category,” Darkfost continued.
“This sharp decline in inflows may suggest that most participants are waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals or simply maintaining high conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term trend.”
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on spot exchanges’ dwindling Bitcoin reserves, with 550,000 BTC being withdrawn over the past year alone, a third of their total supply.
Binance analysis sees chance of short squeeze
Eyeing Binance for signs of a “short squeeze” and BTC price surge is CryptoQuant contributor Joao Wedson, founder of data analysis platform Alphractal.
The BTC price on derivatives, he noted this weekend, is currently lower than spot markets, and once that trend flips, it is historically good news for bulls.
“If the BTC perpetual price difference on Binance turns positive again, it’s a sign that the price is about to explode,” he told X followers, referencing Alphractal data.
“Until that happens, we can say that many institutions are already putting pressure through Shorts, which could be good for a possible Short Squeeze since they’re going against the OG Whales.”
Alphractal shows the “derivatives discount” staying conspicuously high throughout 2025.
“Unlike in 2021-2022, when this kind of difference signaled a Bear Market, today the scenario is different: we are at all-time highs and the discount in derivatives persists,” it said.
“This may reflect institutional hedging, arbitrage, or ETF dynamics.”
BTC price targets aim for the moon
Despite recent BTC price stagnation and repeated failures to crack new all-time highs, many traders are anything but bearish.
Related: Bitcoin holds $105K as HYPE, AAVE, BCH, OKB aim to lead altcoins higher
Over the past week, more voices have joined the narrative that BTC/USD is simply preparing its next attack on resistance, with new all-time highs all but guaranteed.
The only question is how high the price might go before the next long-term top.
🚨 #Bitcoin traders are eyeing new all-time highs — some calling for $270K by October.
The bull run? Far from over. A major $BTC comeback could be just getting started. 👀📈
Read more 👇
— Cointelegraph Markets & Research (@CointelegraphMT) June 16, 2025
“Bitcoin is trending upward in an Ascending Broadening Wedge,” one recent forecast from trader Alan Tardigrade stated on June 15.
“This pattern has recently formed for weeks and is expected to reach $170k levels.”
Targets of $200,000 or more are not uncommon for the current bull market, while a giant list of BTC price indicators has yet to give any sign that the top is near.
As Cointelegraph reported, the “bull market peak” selection of 30 indicators from CoinGlass currently tells investors to “hold 100%” of their allocation.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
