Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin faces strong resistance near $106,000–$108,000, risking a drop toward $100,000.
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Weekly RSI divergence points to a deeper correction.
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Rising NUPL signals increased profit-taking, echoing pre-correction phases.
Bitcoin (BTC) has traded sideways in a narrow $500 range since hitting its all-time high of $112,000 on May 22. The lack of upside momentum for over three weeks is fueling doubts about the strength of the current rally.
A decline toward $100,000 by June’s end?
Bitcoin is flirting with downside volatility after failing to hold above the key $106,000 resistance level—an area market analyst Michaël van de Poppe flagged as essential for sustaining upward momentum.
His chart shows that BTC’s latest rally attempt was rejected almost immediately after testing the $106,000 resistance, triggering a cascade of long-side liquidations and pushing the price back toward the $104,000–$105,000 region.
The failed breakout mimics the price structure from earlier this month when a similar rejection led to a sharp drop toward $100,000.
If BTC loses the $105,000 mark again, it could revisit the $100,000 liquidity pool by June, offering what Van de Poppe sees as a buy opportunity, especially if the market aims to wipe out leveraged longs again.
Classic Bitcoin divergence hints at $85,000
Adding to the short-term bearish bias, Bitcoin’s weekly chart is flashing a classic bearish divergence between price and momentum.
As shown, while BTC/USD formed higher highs over recent months, the relative strength index (RSI) has carved out lower highs, suggesting waning bullish momentum.
Such a type of divergence often precedes trend reversals or deep pullbacks, as it did ahead of the 2021 and mid-2019 market tops.
If history repeats, BTC could retrace toward its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave), currently near $85,000. This level also served as key support during previous bull markets, making it a logical target for any mid-cycle correction.
Alongside RSI divergence and failed breakouts, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) adds to the short-term bearish outlook.
Related: Bitcoin price Bollinger Bands ‘failure’ risks end of uptrend at $112K
As of June 14, the metric was nearing the 0.5–0.6 zone, a level historically linked with local tops.
This indicates many holders are in profit, increasing the likelihood of sell pressure. Such setups in 2017 and 2021 preceded sharp corrections, raising the likelihood of similar pullbacks in 2025.
At least 30 indicators, on the other hand, see a Bitcoin bull market peak at $230,000. Some trade pundits further anticipate that BTC price will reach over $150,000 by the end of the year.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
