- Overall Trend: Strongly Bullish.
- Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1590 – 1.1500 – 1.1420.
- Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1680 – 1.1730 – 1.1800.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1690 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1800.
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1490 with a target of 1.1720 and a stop-loss at 1.1400.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
The strong bullish momentum of the EUR/USD currency pair led to a test of the 1.1665 resistance level, the highest for the pair in over three and a half years, before settling around 1.1655 at the start of today’s session, Thursday, June 26, 2025. However, it’s crucial to consider that a new rise for the Euro necessitates a period of anticipation. The probability of an EUR/USD exchange rate decline is increasing, as technical readings suggest it may have exceeded its acceptable limits in recent hours. According to performance across reliable forex trading platforms, the Euro price is currently heading for a fifth consecutive daily gain, a streak not seen since early July 2024. The EUR/USD pair reached its peak at 1.1665, and from that high, we activated our free trading recommendation to sell. The currency pair’s gains were boosted by optimism following news of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran in the Middle East, a development that pushed oil prices and the US dollar lower.
Overall, the EUR/USD pair has risen by approximately 12% since the beginning of the year, trading well above its major moving averages and touching the upper edge of its Bollinger Band. Technically, the upper band represents two standard deviations from the simple moving average of the exchange rate, which captures about 95% of price data assuming a normal distribution. Reaching the upper band indicates a potential overbought condition and an increased likelihood of a retreat towards the middle of the range occupied by the moving average. Although the Bollinger Band suggests an overbought state, we note that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) does not confirm this signal. Typically, an RSI of 70 or higher reflects an overbought condition. However, the EUR/USD pair on the daily chart shows an RSI of 65.
In the very short term, we might see a slight increase in the Euro’s price, but the US dollar isn’t currently impressing investors either, making it difficult to build a sell position on the EUR/USD pair amidst this volatility. Generally, any strength in the US dollar in the near term will likely be short-lived, given the compelling fundamental arguments against it. Declining crude oil prices and the abandonment of safe-haven assets are not the only factors hindering the dollar; the Federal Reserve indicates it may be inclined to cut US interest rates sooner than previously expected.
Recently, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated in testimony before US lawmakers that lower inflation and/or a weaker labour market could mean an earlier reduction in US interest rates.
Trading Tips:
Fundamental factors still favour further US dollar weakness, even as the likelihood of a near-term recovery, which would pressure EUR/USD, increases.
Overall, this was the first time in a long while that a pro-rate cut opinion was expressed, encouraging markets to price in higher probabilities of a cut in July. The hint of an “early rate cut” echoes statements from Federal Reserve members Michelle Bowman and Christopher J. Waller, indicating a growing consensus on the US central bank’s ability to cut interest rates sooner rather than later.
Bowman this week called for a July US interest rate cut, stating that the impact of President Donald Trump’s trade war on inflation would be less than some economists fear. Waller said the Federal Reserve should not wait for the labour market to weaken. He added that the US Federal Reserve might act next month, noting that the main reason for its delay, which is higher prices due to presidential tariffs, might only be temporary.
It appears we are heading for another downward wave as we enter the third quarter and the end of the year. We expect us to approach the 1.1800 level by year-end, and we might see a slight increase in the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD gains today will react to the announcement of the German GfK Consumer Climate reading at 9:00 AM Egypt time. Then, the focus will shift to more important US data: the US GDP growth reading, weekly jobless claims, and US durable goods sales figures, all scheduled for 3:30 PM Egypt time.
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