{
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    "date": "2026-06-01T08:37:02",
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    "slug": "bitcoin-price-targets-78k-as-btc-holders-defend-strongest-near-term-support",
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        "rendered": "Bitcoin price targets $78K as BTC holders defend ‘strongest near-term support’"
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        "rendered": "<div data-testid=\"post__body\">\n<p>Bitcoin (BTC) is rebounding from a key on-chain support zone, putting the $78,000 level back in focus for bulls.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class value=\"1\">BTC is eyeing a rebound to $78,200, the realized price of BTC held for three to six months.<\/li>\n<li class value=\"2\">A sustained move above this cost basis could put Bitcoin on track for a push above $100,000 by year-end.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>BTC&#8217;s short-term holders defend $71,400 cost basis<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin rebounded roughly 2.5% over the weekend to reach $74,000 on Sunday, with the recovery beginning near $72,500.<\/p>\n<p>The local low came close to the realized price of BTC held for three to six months (orange), a cohort often used to gauge medium-term investor conviction. <\/p>\n<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" alt width=\"896\" height=\"504\" src=\"https:\/\/s3-images.ctmedia.io\/media\/content\/hjoxtfaamaapmip.jpeg\" decoding=\"async\"><\/figure>\n<p><em>BTC realized price by age vs. price. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/p>\n<p>realised<\/p>\n<p>Glassnode data placed that group&#8217;s cost basis near $71,400, which analyst Marcus Corvinus described as Bitcoin\u2019s &#8220;strongest near-term support.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;This cohort is still holding profits, creating a strong incentive to defend the level,&#8221; Corvinus <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CryptoBull009\/status\/2061014505753022765\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a> in a Sunday post.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst highlighted <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/markets\/bitcoin-analysis-bear-trap-btc-price-passes-two-week-lows-under-78k\" target=\"_blank\">$78,200 as the next potential upside target for Bitcoin<\/a> because the level aligns with the realized price of BTC held for three to six months (yellow). Bulls lost the level during the October 2025 market rout.<\/p>\n<h3>What happens after Bitcoin breaks above 3m-6m cost basis?<\/h3>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s rebound above its three-to-six-month holder cost basis (yellow) has historically preceded stronger returns over longer time frames since 2017.<\/p>\n<p>After similar breakouts, BTC has averaged a 2.3% gain over the following 30 days, a 21.9% gain after 90 days, and a 36.6% gain after 180 days.<\/p>\n<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" alt width=\"896\" height=\"504\" src=\"https:\/\/s3-images.ctmedia.io\/media\/content\/glassnode-studiobtc-realized-price-by-age-usd-1.png\" decoding=\"async\"><\/figure>\n<p><em>BTC&#8217;s 3m-6m cohort realized price vs. price. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/p>\n<p>From Bitcoin\u2019s current level near $74,000, that would imply upside targets of roughly $75,700 in one month, $90,200 in three months, and $101,100 in six months.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Related: <\/strong><\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-doesnt-need-a-fresh-narrative-to-reclaim-100k-analyst\" target=\"_blank\"><em><strong>Bitcoin doesn\u2019t need a fresh narrative to reclaim $100K: Analyst<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The signal has been more reliable over longer time frames. Bitcoin delivered positive returns in only 54.2% of cases after one month, but that hit rate rose to 66.7% after three months and 79.2% after six months.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin bear flag can still spoil upside sentiment<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s rebound is also occurring near the lower boundary of a bear flag, keeping the technical outlook cautious.<\/p>\n<p>The pattern has developed after Bitcoin\u2019s sharp decline from its 2026 highs at around $98,000, with the price now stabilizing near the flag\u2019s rising support trend line. <\/p>\n<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" alt width=\"896\" height=\"541\" src=\"https:\/\/s3-images.ctmedia.io\/media\/content\/btcusd2026-05-3115-13-21.png\" decoding=\"async\"><\/figure>\n<p><em>BTC\/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n<p>A rebound from this area could push BTC toward the flag\u2019s upper boundary near $90,000, a zone that also sits close to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the three-to-six-month holder cost basis.<\/p>\n<p>That makes <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/markets\/bitcoin-traders-expect-fast-move-90k-following-clarity-act-vote\" target=\"_blank\">$90,000 the key upside target in the coming months<\/a> if bulls can defend the current support area.<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, a daily close below the lower trend line would risk confirming a breakdown, opening the door to a deeper decline toward the $50,000\u2013$60,000 range, depending on the exact breakdown point.<\/p>\n<p>In that scenario, the recent bounce from holder cost-basis support would look more like a relief move inside a broader downtrend than the start of a sustained recovery.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/editorial-policy\">Editorial Policy<\/a> and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.<\/p>",
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        "rendered": "<p>Bitcoin (BTC) is rebounding from a key on-chain support zone, putting the $78,000 level back in focus for bulls. Key [&hellip;]<\/p>",
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