{ "id": 72982, "date": "2026-04-17T09:04:32", "date_gmt": "2026-04-17T02:04:32", "guid": { "rendered": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/bitcoin-bull-run-still-too-early-to-call-as-demand-lags-exiting-capital-analyst\/" }, "modified": "2026-04-17T09:04:32", "modified_gmt": "2026-04-17T02:04:32", "slug": "bitcoin-bull-run-still-too-early-to-call-as-demand-lags-exiting-capital-analyst", "status": "publish", "type": "post", "link": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/bitcoin-bull-run-still-too-early-to-call-as-demand-lags-exiting-capital-analyst\/", "title": { "rendered": "Bitcoin bull run \u2018still too early\u2019 to call as demand lags exiting capital: Analyst" }, "content": { "rendered": "
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Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) hit range highs above $76,000 on Wednesday, but Glassnode analysts say data suggest that calling for the start of a new bull market is premature.\u00a0<\/p>\n

New capital inflows have stayed weak, with Bitcoin\u2019s growth rate remaining negative across all 105 trading days in 2026, highlighting a gap between stable price action and limited new demand.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin profitability signal remains unresolved<\/h2>\n

Glassnode analyst CryptoViz.art uses<\/a> the true market mean (TMM) to estimate<\/a> the average cost basis of active BTC investors. The metric divides investor capitalization by liveliness-adjusted circulating supply, filtering out inactive coins and the lost supply.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin crossed below this level on Jan. 31 and has stayed there for 75 days. The move placed the average active holder in a loss position, with a peak drawdown of 20% and a current gap of about 5% below the entry level.<\/p>\n

\"Cryptocurrencies,
Bitcoin’s true market mean. Source: Glassnode\/X<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Historical comparisons show 10 similar breaks since 2016, with durations ranging from two days to over 11 months. The deepest drawdowns reached 57% during the 2018\u20132019 and 2022\u20132023 cycles, while the March 2020 event saw a 40% decline over 49 days. The analyst added,\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThat said, 75 days is still early. The 2018 and 2022 episodes didn’t bottom until months 5-9. The signal isn’t “all clear” \u2014 it’s watch closely.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Reclaiming the TMM, currently at $78,013, is key for active investors to return to profit, and it has aligned with momentum resets in earlier cycles.<\/p>\n

Related: Adam Back says Bitcoin\u2019s post-quantum shift may reveal true Satoshi stash<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

BTC capital outflows shape the price ceiling<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. points<\/a> to a steady outflow of capital from the BTC market. The 365-day growth rate of market cap relative to realized cap has remained negative for all 105 trading days in 2026, with the latest reading at -0.000652.<\/p>\n

\"Cryptocurrencies,
Bitcoin growth rate. Source: Axel Adler Jr.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In simple terms, the market is not attracting enough new money to support higher prices.<\/p>\n

The 30-day realized cap change shows the same trend. Only seven days saw positive inflows this year, all during a brief period in mid-January. Since Jan. 23, the metric has stayed negative, though it has improved slightly to -0.32% from early April lows near -0.54%.<\/p>\n

Realized cap has also dropped to $1.08 trillion from $1.12 trillion since the start of the year, a 3.23% decline.<\/p>\n

Adler Jr. said the recent improvement signals a slowdown in BTC outflows, not a bullish reversal. A meaningful shift would require both metrics to turn positive and hold above zero for a sustained period.<\/p>\n

\"Cryptocurrencies,
Bitcoin realized cap change. Source: Axel Adler Jr.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Related: Morgan Stanley\u2019s Bitcoin fund overtakes WisdomTree after 6 trading days<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n