{ "id": 72705, "date": "2026-04-17T08:58:57", "date_gmt": "2026-04-17T01:58:57", "guid": { "rendered": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/after-kalshi-appeal-prediction-markets-fight-could-head-to-us-supreme-court\/" }, "modified": "2026-04-17T08:58:57", "modified_gmt": "2026-04-17T01:58:57", "slug": "after-kalshi-appeal-prediction-markets-fight-could-head-to-us-supreme-court", "status": "publish", "type": "post", "link": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/after-kalshi-appeal-prediction-markets-fight-could-head-to-us-supreme-court\/", "title": { "rendered": "After Kalshi appeal, prediction markets fight could head to US Supreme Court" }, "content": { "rendered": "

An appellate court is expected to reach a decision after hearing arguments from Kalshi and lawyers representing the state of Nevada.<\/p>\n

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Some legal experts speculated that the state vs. federal jurisdiction battle over regulating prediction markets companies could soon be headed to the United States Supreme Court.<\/p>\n

On Thursday, the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit heard<\/a> oral arguments from lawyers representing prediction markets platform Kalshi and Nevada authorities over the state’s ban on the prediction markets’ event contracts. The appeal was over a lower court decision preventing Kalshi from offering certain event-based contracts<\/a> in Nevada, based on claims that the company needed a gaming license.<\/p>\n

\"Law,
Thursday oral arguments by Kalshi and the State of Nevada. Source: <\/em>US Court of Appeals, Ninth Circuit<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The appellate judge overseeing Thursday\u2019s oral arguments and the lawyer for Kalshi acknowledged that there had been several state-level enforcement actions against the company and other prediction market platforms, including criminal charges filed in Arizona. However, last week a federal court blocked Arizona authorities<\/a> from enforcing the state\u2019s gambling laws on Kalshi\u2019s event contracts.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the body of case law does demonstrate that what we really need to avoid here is having a state and a federal court considering exactly the same issue at exactly the same time and potentially reaching different outcomes,\u201d said Colleen Sinzdak, representing Kalshi.<\/p>\n

Related: <\/strong><\/em>CFTC probes oil futures trades tied to Trump’s moves in Iran: Report<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Central to Kalshi\u2019s argument was that the platform\u2019s event contracts were \u201cswaps\u201d falling under the purview of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than state gaming authorities. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has backed this position in the case of Crypto.com\u2019s prediction markets against Nevada authorities.<\/p>\n

The appellate court did not immediately announce a decision following oral arguments. Any ruling could affect how state courts treat prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as policymakers come to terms with the growing market, expected to reach $1 trillion<\/a> by 2030.<\/p>\n

Coinbase\u2019s top lawyer weighs in on prediction market arguments<\/h2>\n

Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal, whose company was not a party to the Kalshi proceedings but has a stake<\/a> in the prediction markets fight, speculated that the case could go the US Supreme Court.<\/p>\n