{ "id": 70773, "date": "2026-04-13T09:02:12", "date_gmt": "2026-04-13T02:02:12", "guid": { "rendered": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/us-dollar-weekly-forecast-geopolitics-fade-but-inflation-keeps-the-dollar-in-play\/" }, "modified": "2026-04-13T09:16:06", "modified_gmt": "2026-04-13T02:16:06", "slug": "du-bao-hang-tuan-cua-do-la-my-cang-thang-dia-chinh-tri-ha-nhiet-nhung-lam-phat-van-giu-cho-dong-do-la-o-vi-the-dang-chu-y", "status": "publish", "type": "post", "link": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/du-bao-hang-tuan-cua-do-la-my-cang-thang-dia-chinh-tri-ha-nhiet-nhung-lam-phat-van-giu-cho-dong-do-la-o-vi-the-dang-chu-y\/", "title": { "rendered": "D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00f4 la M\u1ef9: C\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn gi\u1eef cho \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0110\u00f4 la \u1edf v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd" }, "content": { "rendered": "
\n

Tu\u1ea7n v\u1eeba qua<\/strong><\/h3>\n

M\u1ed9t tu\u1ea7n t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0110\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 (USD) khi Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0110\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 (DXY) gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng v\u00f9ng \u0111\u00e1y nhi\u1ec1u tu\u1ea7n quanh 98,50, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi tr\u00f9ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n 200 ng\u00e0y (SMA) quan tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n

\u00c1p l\u1ef1c b\u00e1n l\u00ean \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1ea1c xanh ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng t\u1ea1i Trung \u0110\u00f4ng h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t sau khi th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn k\u00e9o d\u00e0i hai tu\u1ea7n gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Iran \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ed1t v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i ng\u00e0y th\u1ee9 Ba.<\/p>\n

D\u00f9 s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n c\u00f3 v\u1ebb \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0o gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt, v\u1eabn c\u00f2n t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn, nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c Lebanon c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn hay kh\u00f4ng v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf l\u1ea1i eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u2014 tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng quan tr\u1ecdng cho v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ea7u th\u00f4.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1ea1c xanh nh\u00ecn chung \u0111i c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u1edf k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n ng\u1eafn v\u00e0 trung h\u1ea1n, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng tin li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n

Quan ch\u1ee9c Fed: ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111ang \u1edf v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p, nh\u01b0ng r\u1ee7i ro theo hai h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u m\u1edbi t\u1eeb c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang (Fed) c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u1eb1ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ee7 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t, nh\u01b0ng tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p khi c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb l\u00e0m m\u1edd \u0111i con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c nh\u00ecn chung b\u00e0y t\u1ecf s\u1ef1 t\u1ef1 tin trong vi\u1ec7c gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u1ecf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u00f9y theo di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/p>\n

Mary Daly (San Francisco) cho bi\u1ebft Fed v\u1eabn c\u00f2n linh ho\u1ea1t, nh\u01b0ng b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i ti\u1ebfp theo s\u1ebd ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a c\u00fa s\u1ed1c gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u. N\u1ebfu c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i, vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra. N\u1ebfu l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn dai d\u1eb3ng, Fed s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng gi\u1eef l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao l\u00e2u h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

B\u00e0 nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh ngay c\u1ea3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00fa s\u1ed1c g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cao h\u01a1n s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0m ch\u1eadm ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, b\u00e0 c\u0169ng th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i khi chi ph\u00ed t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh vi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng.<\/p>\n

Philip Jefferson (H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c) c\u0169ng nghi\u00eang v\u1ec1 l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng, nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh cao v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro \u1edf c\u1ea3 hai ph\u00eda trong nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a Fed. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro suy y\u1ebfu, trong khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau. Nh\u1eefng nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng cho th\u1ea5y ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111ang \u1edf v\u1ecb th\u1ebf ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n m\u1ee9c trung l\u1eadp.<\/p>\n

Austan Goolsbee (Chicago) th\u1eb3ng th\u1eafn h\u01a1n khi m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cao l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00fa s\u1ed1c mang t\u00ednh \u0111\u00ecnh l\u1ea1m. \u00d4ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng Fed \u0111ang ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u201ck\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n chu\u1ea9n\u201d, khi r\u1ee7i ro l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn hi\u1ec7n h\u1eefu v\u00e0 c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 tr\u1edf n\u00ean dai d\u1eb3ng. \u00d4ng c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 m\u1ea1nh.<\/p>\n

John Williams (New York) c\u00f3 gi\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec7u t\u00edch c\u1ef1c h\u01a1n. \u00d4ng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng do xung \u0111\u1ed9t, nh\u01b0ng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i v\u1eabn \u0111ang h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t. \u00d4ng b\u1ed5 sung r\u1eb1ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7n \u1edf v\u1ecb th\u1ebf ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i, v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u1eabn tr\u1ee5 v\u1eefng, d\u00f9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p v\u00e0 k\u00e9m n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

T\u00f3m l\u1ea1i:<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ee7 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t \/ g\u1ea7n trung l\u1eadp
\nC\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, nh\u01b0ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gi\u1ea3m
\nR\u1ee7i ro l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn cao, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t t\u1eeb gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u
\nR\u1ee7i ro t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng gia t\u0103ng, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 do nhu c\u1ea7u suy y\u1ebfu<\/p>\n

Nh\u00ecn chung, Fed c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y tho\u1ea3i m\u00e1i v\u1edbi v\u1ecb tr\u00ed hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, nh\u01b0ng m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng xung quanh ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p. Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u00f3 v\u1ebb \u0111ang \u1edf tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p, nh\u01b0ng h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u, \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t lan t\u1ecfa. V\u1edbi ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7n mang t\u00ednh hai chi\u1ec1u r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t, m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i ti\u1ebfp theo v\u1eabn th\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n

Bi\u00ean b\u1ea3n cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp ng\u00e0y 17\u201318 th\u00e1ng 3 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y. Ch\u00fang cho th\u1ea5y Fed v\u1eabn \u0111ang trong tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i \u201cch\u1edd v\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t\u201d, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng r\u1ee7i ro \u0111ang tr\u1edf n\u00ean c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i ra, \u0111a s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch cho r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p, v\u00e0 h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong th\u00e1ng 3. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean cho r\u1eb1ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e3 n\u1eb1m trong ph\u1ea1m vi trung l\u1eadp h\u1ee3p l\u00fd, \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t th\u00eam v\u1eabn kh\u00e1 cao.<\/p>\n

L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00fang nh\u01b0 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o (ho\u1eb7c lo ng\u1ea1i), l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong th\u00e1ng 3 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, v\u1edbi Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Gi\u00e1 Ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (CPI) t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng 3,3% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c 2,4% c\u1ee7a th\u00e1ng 2. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 l\u00f5i, lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, c\u0169ng t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9 l\u00ean 2,6% t\u1eeb 2,5%.<\/p>\n

C\u00f3 v\u1ebb nh\u01b0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh gi\u1ea3m l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n b\u1edfi y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4. Tuy v\u1eady, m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 mang t\u00ednh t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi \u2014 ho\u1eb7c \u00edt nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111ang k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n

Tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y c\u0169ng ghi nh\u1eadn vi\u1ec7c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u01b0a th\u00edch c\u1ee7a Fed \u2014 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Chi ti\u00eau Ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng C\u00e1 nh\u00e2n (PCE), gi\u1eef \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u1edf m\u1ee9c 2,8% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 2, trong khi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 l\u00f5i gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 xu\u1ed1ng 3% trong 12 th\u00e1ng g\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5t (t\u1eeb 3,1%).<\/p>\n

D\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn b\u1ee9c tranh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd x\u1ea5u \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n, khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n ph\u1ea3i t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u1eabn \u0111ang b\u1ecb \u0111\u00f3ng c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eeb c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf quan c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

\n

\"\"<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

N\u1eeda c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 l\u00e0 v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng\u2026<\/strong><\/h3>\n

B\u00e1o c\u00e1o m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng M\u1ef9 cho th\u1ea5y n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o th\u00eam 178 ngh\u00ecn vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trong th\u00e1ng 3, v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa c\u00e1c \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh ban \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u c\u00fa \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m 133 ngh\u00ecn c\u1ee7a th\u00e1ng 2 sau \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh, theo C\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea Lao \u0111\u1ed9ng M\u1ef9 (BLS).<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i ra, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 4,3%, trong khi thu nh\u1eadp b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n theo gi\u1edd \u2014 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng \u2014 t\u0103ng 3,5% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c 3,8% c\u1ee7a th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

\n

\"\"<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u0110\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb USD: Long duy tr\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, ni\u1ec1m tin \u0111ang c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n d\u1ea7n<\/strong><\/h4>\n

C\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng USD hi\u1ec7n v\u1eabn mang t\u00ednh \u201ct\u00e1i t\u00edch l\u0169y t\u1eeb t\u1eeb\u201d h\u01a1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd. Sau khi chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i net short nh\u1eb9 sang net long khi\u00eam t\u1ed1n h\u1ed3i \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng, v\u1ecb th\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh quanh m\u1ee9c 3.6K\u20133.7K h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng, theo d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb Commodity Futures Trading Commission<\/span><\/span> (CFTC).<\/p>\n

D\u00f9 con s\u1ed1 headline kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c b\u00ean d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u1ea1i kh\u00e1 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c. \u0110\u1ed3ng b\u1ea1c xanh ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t gi\u00e1, v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 USD ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n v\u00f9ng 99.80, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi open interest<\/strong> t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao m\u1edbi trong chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1edbi \u0111ang v\u00e0o v\u1ecb th\u1ebf long<\/strong>, thay v\u00ec ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 \u0111\u00f3ng short.<\/p>\n

Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang t\u1eebng b\u01b0\u1edbc x\u00e2y l\u1ea1i exposure v\u1edbi USD<\/strong>, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t M\u1ef9 duy tr\u00ec cao v\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u1eabn c\u00f2n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a r\u01a1i v\u00e0o tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i overcrowded (qu\u00e1 \u0111\u00f4ng v\u1ecb th\u1ebf)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/h2>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec ti\u1ebfp theo cho \u0111\u1ed3ng USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tu\u1ea7n t\u1edbi, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0 t\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec3m tr\u00ean l\u1ecbch kinh t\u1ebf, v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t (PPI) c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0o th\u1ee9 Ba. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, b\u00e1o c\u00e1o h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c theo d\u00f5i ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u00e1c ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u t\u1eeb quan ch\u1ee9c Fed c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c thu h\u00fat s\u1ef1 ch\u00fa \u00fd c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n

K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ed3ng USD g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y m\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u1ee3p l\u00fd \u2013 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u2013 trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh nh\u1edd vai tr\u00f2 tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n sau c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Israel v\u00e0o Iran h\u1ed3i cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 2.<\/p>\n

Khi quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh tr\u01b0\u1edbc xung \u0111\u1ed9t, thu\u1ebf quan l\u1ea1i tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec3m, khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng gia t\u0103ng. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao \u0111\u00e1ng lo ng\u1ea1i\u2026 v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111ang h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t nh\u01b0ng ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n

Trong k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u00f3, Fed nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ki\u00ean nh\u1eabn, duy tr\u00ec l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, v\u00e0 theo th\u1eddi gian c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o th\u00eam h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho \u0111\u1ed3ng USD.<\/p>\n

C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1eb7p v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t<\/strong><\/p>\n

L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t r\u1ed5 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n. L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thay \u0111\u1ed5i theo th\u00e1ng (MoM) v\u00e0 theo n\u0103m (YoY). L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00f5i lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh nh\u01b0 th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i do y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c m\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi, th\u01b0\u1eddng quanh 2%.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (CPI) \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t r\u1ed5 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 theo th\u1eddi gian, c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n theo MoM v\u00e0 YoY. CPI l\u00f5i l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng theo d\u00f5i v\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng. Khi CPI l\u00f5i v\u01b0\u1ee3t 2%, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i khi th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 2%. Do l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao th\u01b0\u1eddng khi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean, v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u1ef1c gi\u00e1c, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao trong m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3, v\u00ec ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, qua \u0111\u00f3 thu h\u00fat d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, v\u00e0ng l\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00ecm \u0111\u1ebfn khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao v\u00ec kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1eef gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. D\u00f9 hi\u1ec7n nay v\u00e0ng v\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mua trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n m\u1ea1nh, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng v\u1eady. Khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao, ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, khi\u1ebfn chi ph\u00ed c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u00e0ng t\u0103ng l\u00ean (so v\u1edbi t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n sinh l\u00e3i), t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 g\u00e2y b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i cho v\u00e0ng. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u1ea5p, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m, v\u00e0ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn h\u01a1n nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t k\u00eanh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n<\/div>", "protected": false }, "excerpt": { "rendered": "

Tu\u1ea7n v\u1eeba qua M\u1ed9t tu\u1ea7n t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0110\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 (USD) khi Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0110\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 (DXY) […]<\/p>", "protected": false }, "author": 5, "featured_media": 70774, "comment_status": "open", "ping_status": "open", "sticky": false, "template": "", "format": "standard", "meta": { "_acf_changed": false, "footnotes": "" }, "categories": [ 222 ], "tags": [], "class_list": [ "post-70773", "post", "type-post", "status-publish", "format-standard", "has-post-thumbnail", "hentry", "category-ngoai-hoi" ], "acf": [], "_links": { "self": [ { "href": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70773", "targetHints": { "allow": [ "GET" ] } } ], "collection": [ { "href": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts" } ], "about": [ { "href": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post" } ], "author": [ { "embeddable": true, "href": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5" } ], "replies": [ { "embeddable": true, "href": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70773" } ], "version-history": [ { "count": 1, "href": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70773\/revisions" } ], "predecessor-version": [ { "id": 70884, "href": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70773\/revisions\/70884" } ], "wp:featuredmedia": [ { "embeddable": true, "href": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/70774" } ], "wp:attachment": [ { "href": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70773" } ], "wp:term": [ { "taxonomy": "category", "embeddable": true, "href": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70773" }, { "taxonomy": "post_tag", "embeddable": true, "href": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70773" } ], "curies": [ { "name": "wp", "href": "https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}", "templated": true } ] } }