{
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    "date": "2026-03-26T08:35:23",
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    "slug": "apac-fx-balance-of-payments-strains-shape-flows-bny",
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        "rendered": "Ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i APAC: \u00c1p l\u1ef1c c\u00e1n c\u00e2n thanh to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n \u2013 BNY"
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        "rendered": "<div id=\"post-content-section\">\n<p>Geoff Yu t\u1eeb BNY Mellon nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c \u00e1p l\u1ef1c v\u1ec1 <strong>c\u00e1n c\u00e2n thanh to\u00e1n (balance-of-payments)<\/strong> \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c APAC, xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb xung \u0111\u1ed9t Iran v\u00e0 c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ph\u1ee5 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, \u0111ang ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n <strong>MYR, THB, AUD v\u00e0 PHP<\/strong> l\u00e0 t\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec3m.<\/p>\n<p>C\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ch\u00ednh \u1edf B\u1eafc \u00c1 (<strong>Core North Asian exporters<\/strong>) t\u1ecf ra <strong>v\u1eefng v\u00e0ng h\u01a1n<\/strong> nh\u1edd d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i v\u00e0 ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m, trong khi \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 v\u00e0 Australia \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi <strong>thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u<\/strong> v\u00e0 <strong>\u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i suy y\u1ebfu (weaker terms of trade)<\/strong>. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd <strong>ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng<\/strong> v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 v\u1eabn c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 <strong>s\u1ee9c ch\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ee1 t\u1eeb v\u1ecb th\u1ebf n\u1eafm gi\u1eef (positioning resilience)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>C\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n APAC th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\u201cB\u1ed1n tu\u1ea7n k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi xung \u0111\u1ed9t Iran b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7n nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c r\u00f5 t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c V\u1ecbnh Persian trong vi\u1ec7c xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ph\u1ee5 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. T\u1eeb helium \u0111\u1ebfn ure, nhi\u1ec1u trong s\u1ed1 nh\u1eefng nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu cho nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e0nh c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf APAC. Trong khi nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u kho\u00e1ng s\u1ea3n v\u1eabn l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh l\u00ean <strong>c\u00e1n c\u00e2n thanh to\u00e1n (balance-of-payments)<\/strong> khu v\u1ef1c, t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a c\u00fa s\u1ed1c ngu\u1ed3n cung hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t <strong>c\u00fa s\u1ed1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i (terms-of-trade shock)<\/strong> r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n, bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cC\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ch\u00ednh \u1edf B\u1eafc \u00c1 (<strong>Core North Asian export-driven economies<\/strong>) c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu v\u1ec1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ee7 trong v\u00e0i th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi. Quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0, m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef (<strong>reserve coverage<\/strong>) c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ee7 cao \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chi ph\u00ed nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u0103ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i. M\u1ee9c ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba (<strong>precautionary savings<\/strong>) cao c\u00f9ng ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a m\u1ea1nh (tr\u1eeb Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n) t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t l\u1edbp \u0111\u1ec7m b\u1ed5 sung, do \u0111\u00f3 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i ch\u00fang t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng xem <strong>d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n ra t\u1eeb FX hay tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu<\/strong> l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u1edbn.\u201d<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\u201cT\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a APAC. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, nh\u01b0 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u (<strong>fuel rationing<\/strong>), \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u2013 T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Marcos c\u1ee7a Philippines h\u00f4m th\u1ee9 Ba cho bi\u1ebft \u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u00e1y bay ph\u1ea3i ng\u1eebng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng do thi\u1ebfu nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u m\u00e1y bay. Ngay c\u1ea3 Australia, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u r\u00f2ng kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean quan tr\u1ecdng, c\u0169ng \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf, c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh <strong>terms-of-trade<\/strong> m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cM\u1eb7c d\u00f9 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n duy nh\u1ea5t b\u1ecb b\u00e1n r\u00f2ng trong th\u00e1ng v\u1eeba qua l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb n\u1eafm gi\u1eef qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c (<strong>overheld<\/strong>) t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Do \u0111\u00f3, vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng (<strong>reducing exposures<\/strong>) kh\u00e1 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, MYR, THB v\u00e0 AUD v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb n\u1eafm gi\u1eef th\u1ea5p (<strong>underheld<\/strong>), n\u00ean l\u1ee3i \u00edch bi\u00ean khi b\u1ed5 sung c\u00e1c v\u1ecb th\u1ebf ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba (<strong>hedges<\/strong>) cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 xuy\u00ean bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi l\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCh\u00fang t\u00f4i k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c <strong>th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng (cautious)<\/strong> v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y, nh\u01b0ng s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhanh ch\u00f3ng trong h\u00e0nh vi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap t\u0103ng <strong>s\u1ee9c ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu (resilience)<\/strong> theo th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m <strong>risk premia<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n mu\u1ed1n, t\u00f4i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ecbch to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 b\u00e0i n\u00e0y th\u00e0nh <strong>b\u1ea3n ti\u1ebfng Vi\u1ec7t chu\u1ea9n theo thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef Forex, k\u00e8m ch\u00fa th\u00edch c\u00e1c t\u1eeb chuy\u00ean ng\u00e0nh<\/strong> \u0111\u1ec3 d\u00f9ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp cho b\u00e1o c\u00e1o ho\u1eb7c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 mu\u1ed1n t\u00f4i l\u00e0m kh\u00f4ng?<\/p>",
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