{ "id": 59968, "date": "2026-01-21T09:41:41", "date_gmt": "2026-01-21T02:41:41", "guid": { "rendered": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/fundstrats-lee-sees-painful-start-to-2026-before-late-year-rebound\/" }, "modified": "2026-01-21T09:41:41", "modified_gmt": "2026-01-21T02:41:41", "slug": "fundstrats-lee-sees-painful-start-to-2026-before-late-year-rebound", "status": "publish", "type": "post", "link": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/fundstrats-lee-sees-painful-start-to-2026-before-late-year-rebound\/", "title": { "rendered": "Fundstrat\u2019s Lee sees \u2018painful\u2019 start to 2026 before late-year rebound" }, "content": { "rendered": "
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Fundstrat head of research Tom Lee has warned investors to brace for a \u201cpainful decline\u201d across the crypto and stock markets in 2026 amid geopolitical tension, before a recovery towards the end of the year. <\/p>\n

In an interview<\/a> on Tuesday with The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost, Lee said 2026 will mirror 2025 with tailwinds for the blockchain and AI industries, but risks from tariffs and political divides<\/a> would hold the market back from a sustained rally initially. <\/p>\n

Lee estimated a stock market correction of 15% to 20% this year, but added, \u201cI think we really finish the year strong,\u201d in part due to a more dovish US Federal Reserve<\/a> and the conclusion of quantitative tightening last year.<\/p>\n

Source: <\/em>Tom Lee<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

He also said the White House picking \u201cwinners and losers\u201d may also influence which sectors outperform this year.<\/p>\n

For Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>), Lee said he still expects it to set a new all-time high this year, but didn\u2019t mention the $250,000 Bitcoin price prediction<\/a> he made in previous months.<\/p>\n

Deleveraging has hurt the crypto market, says Lee<\/h2>\n

Lee said a new Bitcoin all-time high would be a key milestone as it would indicate the market has fully shaken off the Oct. 10 market crash,<\/a> which saw around $20 billion worth of leveraged crypto positions wiped out:<\/p>\n

\u201cI think 2026 will be a really important test because if Bitcoin makes a new all-time high, we know that that deleveraging event is behind us.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Lee noted that crypto\u2019s recent divergence from gold<\/a> was partly due to these deleveraging cycles,<\/a> which periodically shake the market and severely impair market makers, whom Lee described as the \u201ccentral bank of crypto.\u201d<\/p>\n