{ "id": 59071, "date": "2026-01-09T09:40:19", "date_gmt": "2026-01-09T02:40:19", "guid": { "rendered": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/cryptoquant-ceo-expects-boring-bitcoin-action-not-major-crash\/" }, "modified": "2026-01-09T09:40:19", "modified_gmt": "2026-01-09T02:40:19", "slug": "cryptoquant-ceo-expects-boring-bitcoin-action-not-major-crash", "status": "publish", "type": "post", "link": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/cryptoquant-ceo-expects-boring-bitcoin-action-not-major-crash\/", "title": { "rendered": "CryptoQuant CEO Expects Boring Bitcoin Action, Not Major Crash" }, "content": { "rendered": "
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The founder of CryptoQuant doesn\u2019t think Bitcoin will see a major crash of more than 50% like past bear markets and instead sees sideways action ahead.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Has Seen A Slowdown In Realized Cap Recently<\/h2>\n

In a new post<\/a> on X, CrypotQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has talked about how capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up recently. The on-chain indicator that Young Ju has cited is the \u201cRealized Cap<\/a>,\u201d which measures the cryptocurrency\u2019s total value by assuming that the value of each token in circulation is equal to the last time that it changed hands.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
The uptrend in the metric seems to have paused in recent weeks | Source: @ki_young_ju on X<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In short, what the Realized Cap signifies is the total amount of capital that the investors of the asset as a whole have put into the network. Changes in the metric, therefore, signify the exit or entry of capital relative to BTC. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap enjoyed sharp growth between late 2023 and late 2025, indicating that the coin was receiving continuous injections of capital.<\/p>\n

Recently, however, the uptrend in the indicator has seemingly broken, with its value facing a small net decline. In the past, bull markets<\/a> have coincided with an upward trajectory in the Realized Cap, with a transition to weak inflows or net outflows leading into bearish phases.<\/p>\n

Considering that the metric\u2019s trend is now hinting at the latter type of market conditions, it\u2019s possible that a bearish transition might be occurring for the cryptocurrency. That said, the analyst has pointed out that the latest cycle isn\u2019t the same as the ones from before.<\/p>\n

\u201cLiquidity channels are more diverse now, so timing inflows is pointless,\u201d noted Young Ju. \u201cInstitutions holding long-term killed the old whale-retail sell cycle.\u201d Examples of demand channels that didn\u2019t exist before include treasury companies like Strategy and investment vehicles like the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think we\u2019ll see a -50%+ crash from ATH like past bear markets,\u201d said the CryptoQuant founder. \u201cJust boring sideways for the next few months.\u201d It now remains to be seen what trajectory Bitcoin will end up following.<\/p>\n

In some other news, on-chain demand as gauged by the Realized Cap isn\u2019t the only one that has declined recently. As CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has highlighted in an X post<\/a>, demand from retail investors<\/a> has also been missing.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
The trend in the 30-day change of the BTC retail volume over the last few years | Source: @JA_Maartun on X<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In the chart, the metric shown is the 30-day percentage change in the volume associated with the retail investors, the smallest of hands on the network. This indicator has been negative lately, implying that the volume of transactions valued at less $10,000 has been declining on a monthly timeframe.<\/p>\n

This hasn\u2019t changed even after the recent recovery surge in Bitcoin. \u201cThe crowd hasn\u2019t returned\u2014yet,\u201d noted Maartunn.<\/p>\n

BTC Price<\/h2>\n

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $89,900, up 2% in the last seven days.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
The price of the coin has retraced some of its recovery | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>", "protected": false }, "excerpt": { "rendered": "

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