{
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    "date": "2025-12-04T12:41:31",
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    "slug": "bitcoin-short-positions-build-ahead-of-potential-fed-rate-cut",
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        "rendered": "Bitcoin Short Positions Build Ahead of Potential Fed Rate Cut"
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        "rendered": "<div>\n<div>\n<h4 color=\"#333\">In brief<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Roughly $3 billion in shorts risk liquidation if Bitcoin rises 3% to $96,250, while $3.52 billion in longs would be wiped out on a 4.54% drop to $89,209, per CoinGlass.<\/li>\n<li>Derivatives data show falling open interest and rising perpetual CVD, indicating short-covering rather than renewed bullish conviction.<\/li>\n<li>Order-book depth has turned negative since Dec. 2, underscoring weak spot demand as traders look to the Fed\u2019s policy signal for direction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>With the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate decision less than a week away, speculation is rife among Bitcoin investors, with more than $6 billion in positions at risk of liquidation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Nearly $3 billion in short positions will be liquidated if Bitcoin moves just 3% to $96,250, according to CoinGlass data. On the other hand, $3.52 billion in long positions will be blown out of the water if Bitcoin drops 4.54% to $89,209.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u201cCryptocurrencies face strong resistance to upward movement, with market participants still maintaining a bearish mindset, leaving the market highly vulnerable,\u201d Adam Chu, chief researcher at options analytics firm GreeksLive, told <\/span><i><span>Decrypt<\/span><\/i><span> yesterday.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Bitcoin is currently trading at $93,800, up 1% over 24 hours and nearly 4% over the past week, following a rocky start to the month, CoinGecko data shows.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>With bond traders pricing in a quarter-point rate cut at nearly 90%, a potential price uptick could trigger a short squeeze, pushing Bitcoin close to the key psychological level of $100,000.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>A short squeeze occurs when the price moves against investors\u2019 bearish bets, forcing them to cover their positions by buying, accelerating the underlying asset\u2019s uptrend.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The current market conditions set up a high-stakes tug-of-war ahead of the Fed&#8217;s decision, where the market&#8217;s underlying fragility could amplify the impact of the central bank\u2019s policy signal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>However, a closer look at derivatives data shows a more nuanced picture.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Open interest for Bitcoin derivatives contracts has been steadily declining since November 21, even as the cumulative volume delta for perpetual contracts has climbed\u2014a pattern suggesting traders are short-covering, according to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/velo.xyz\/snapshot\/98097309\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><span>Velo<\/span><\/a><span> data.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>In other words, the data suggests Bitcoin isn\u2019t rising because traders aren&#8217;t becoming bullish. Instead, prices may be getting pushed up as short sellers close their positions, while spot buying remains weak.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Still, the funding rate and Coinbase premium indicators, which help determine investor positioning and spot buying demand, remain indecisive, showing no particular directional bias.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>For the uptrend to rejuvenate, it likely needs a sustained uptick in spot cumulative volume delta and open interest.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Spot and perpetual orderbook depths of up to 10% have meanwhile flipped negative since December 2, as traders remain unwilling to drive prices higher.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;At this stage, a short squeeze looks more likely than a long squeeze,&#8221; Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, told <i>Decrypt.<\/i>\u00a0&#8220;Institutional inflows remain steady, regulatory signals are leaning constructive, and sentiment is gradually shifting risk-on.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div>\n<h3>Daily Debrief Newsletter<\/h3>\n<p>Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>",
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    "excerpt": {
        "rendered": "<p>In brief Roughly $3 billion in shorts risk liquidation if Bitcoin rises 3% to $96,250, while $3.52 billion in longs [&hellip;]<\/p>",
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