{ "id": 55535, "date": "2025-11-24T09:17:31", "date_gmt": "2025-11-24T02:17:31", "guid": { "rendered": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/bitcoin-volatility-surge-may-signal-return-to-options-driven-prices-analyst\/" }, "modified": "2025-11-24T09:17:31", "modified_gmt": "2025-11-24T02:17:31", "slug": "bitcoin-volatility-surge-may-signal-return-to-options-driven-prices-analyst", "status": "publish", "type": "post", "link": "https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/en_us\/bitcoin-volatility-surge-may-signal-return-to-options-driven-prices-analyst\/", "title": { "rendered": "Bitcoin volatility surge may signal return to options-driven prices: Analyst" }, "content": { "rendered": "
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The rising volatility suggests a potential return to levels seen before the launch of BTC exchange-traded funds, which dampened volatility. <\/p>\n

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Bitcoin\u2019s (BTC<\/a>) price volatility has surged over the last two months, signaling a potential return to options-driven price action that sparks large market moves in both directions.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s implied volatility never broke past 80% after Bitcoin ETFs were approved in the United States, according<\/a> to Jeff Park, a market analyst and advisor at investment firm Bitwise. <\/p>\n

However, a chart shared by Park shows that Bitcoin\u2019s volatility is creeping back up to about 60 at the time of this writing.<\/p>\n

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Historical BTC volatility levels show large spikes before Bitcoin exchange-traded funds were approved for US markets in 2024. Source: <\/em>Jeff Park<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Park cited Bitcoin\u2019s explosive price action in January 2021, which kicked off the 2021 bull run<\/a> that took BTC to new all-time highs and a cycle top of $69,000 in November of that year, as the last major options-driven melt-up. He said:<\/p>\n

\u201cUltimately, it is options positioning, not just spot flows, that creates the decisive moves that carry Bitcoin to new highs. It\u2019s possible that for the first time in nearly two years, the volatility surface is flickering with early signs that Bitcoin might become option-driven again.\u201d\u00a0<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The analysis counters the theory that the presence of ETFs and institutional investors has permanently smoothed out Bitcoin\u2019s price volatility and shifted market structure<\/a> to reflect a more mature asset class, bolstered by passive inflows from investment vehicles.<\/p>\n

Related: <\/strong><\/em>\u2018Volatility is your friend\u2019: Eric Trump not bothered by Bitcoin, crypto carnage<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Volatility is rising amid the market carnage, triggering fears of an extended downturn<\/h2>\n

The elevated volatility in the BTC market is consistent with levels across all asset classes<\/a>, according to Binance CEO Richard Teng.<\/p>\n

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Bitcoin implied volatility rank and percentile compared to historical levels. Source: <\/em>Deribit<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Bitcoin crashed below $85,000<\/a> on Thursday, triggering fears of further downside in the coming weeks and potentially starting the next Bitcoin bear market<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Analysts have presented several theories about the causes of the downturn, including the liquidation of highly leveraged positions in derivatives markets, BTC long-term holders cashing out<\/a>, and macroeconomic pressures.<\/p>\n

The ongoing BTC downturn is due to short-term factors<\/a> and signals \u201ctactical rebalancing,\u201d rather than institutional flight or a lack of demand, according to analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex.<\/p>\n

This does not derail Bitcoin\u2019s long-term fundamentals, price appreciation, or institutional adoption trends, the analysts said.<\/p>\n

Magazine: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin to see \u2018one more big thrust\u2019 to $150K, ETH pressure builds: Trade Secrets<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n