- The Pound Sterling trades broadly calm against its peers on better-than-projected UK monthly Retail Sales data for July.
- UK Retail Sales rose by 0.6% on the month, higher than expectations of 0.2%.
- Investors await key US NFP data for August.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) moves higher to near 1.3470 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar slumps ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% lower around 98.00
Economists expect US employers to have hired 75K fresh workers, almost in line with the July reading of 73K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to have accelerated to 4.3% from the previous release of 4.2%. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, is expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 3.7%, compared to 3.9% in July, with monthly figures rising steadily by 0.3%.
The impact of the official employment report is expected to be significant on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Traders raised Fed dovish expectations for the September policy meeting in early August after July’s NFP report showed a significant downward revision in payrolls figures of May and June.
Additionally, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have also warned about escalating downside risks to the labor market in the wake of tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is certain to cut interest rates in the September policy meeting.
Meanwhile, the ADP Employment Change report for August, on Thursday, also showed a slowdown in labor demand in the private sector. Moreover, the ISM Services PMI came in higher at 52.0 against expectations of 51.0, and the prior release of 50.1.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.36% | -0.38% | -0.18% | -0.19% | -0.52% | -0.52% | -0.39% | |
| EUR | 0.36% | -0.01% | 0.10% | 0.16% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.38% | 0.00% | 0.14% | 0.17% | -0.05% | -0.15% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.18% | -0.10% | -0.14% | 0.05% | -0.26% | -0.30% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | -0.16% | -0.17% | -0.05% | -0.27% | -0.33% | -0.16% | |
| AUD | 0.52% | 0.07% | 0.05% | 0.26% | 0.27% | -0.10% | 0.09% | |
| NZD | 0.52% | 0.15% | 0.15% | 0.30% | 0.33% | 0.10% | 0.17% | |
| CHF | 0.39% | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.16% | -0.09% | -0.17% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Pound Sterling trades calmly after release of better than projected UK monthly Retail Sales data
- The Pound Sterling exhibits a mixed performance on Friday after the release of the upbeat United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for July. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, surprisingly grew at a faster pace of 0.6% on a monthly basis, compared to the 0.2% expected by economists. In June, the consumer spending measure rose 0.3%, revised lower from 0.9%.
- On an annualized basis, the Retail Sales data has risen by 1.1%, missing estimates of 1.3%. However, the pace of growth was faster than the 0.9% increase seen in June, revised lower from 1.7%.
- Signs of rising UK retal sales demonstrate strong consumer demand, which often leads to the maintenance of a restrictive monetary policy stance by the Bank of England (BoE) as it could lead to higher consumer inflation.
- Meanwhile, the BoE is expected to maintain interest rates at their current level of 4% in the policy meeting this month, as inflation in the UK is proving to be persistent.
- BoE Governor Andrew Bailey also expressed uncertainty over the pace of interest rate cuts on Wednesday, in his speech before the House of Commons’ Treasury Committee. “I think path for rates will continue to be downwards, but there is considerably more doubt on how fast we can cut rates,” Bailey said.
- Going forward, investors will also focus on the US Supreme Court’s verdict regarding Trump’s tariffs. On Wednesday, the President took the Appeals Court vs. tariffs to the Supreme Court and urged judges to rule in favor of additional import duties quickly. Lately, the appeals court gave a verdict against a majority of tariffs, citing them “illegal” and accusing Trump of abusing his powers.
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling remains sticky to 20-day EMA
The Pound Sterling rises to near 1.3470 against the US Dollar on Friday. However, the near-term trend of the GBP/USD pair is sideways as it trades close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.3470.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend.
Looking down, the August 1 low of 1.3140 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the August 14 high near 1.3600 will act as a key barrier.
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