Bitcoin’s onchain data points to supply overhang and weak participation, while gold’s breakout is priced by markets as a durable macro regime shift.
Updated Jan 26, 2026, 2:20 a.m. Published Jan 26, 2026, 2:11 a.m.
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Gold’s breakout above $5,000 is beginning to look less like a spike and more like a regime shift, as bitcoin drifts sideways around $87,000 in the early hours of Hong Kong trading, in a low-conviction market that continues to struggle with internal supply dynamics.
Onchain indicators suggest the divergence reflects market structure rather than sentiment alone.
In its latest report, CryptoQuant says bitcoin holders have started selling at a loss for the first time since October 2023, with older buyers exiting positions and newer holders stepping in, a pattern that typically marks a market moving into consolidation rather than acceleration.
Glassnode says the market is being held back by supply, with rallies repeatedly running into sellers near the prices where recent buyers originally bought in.
Options and prediction markets reinforce that view: the market is pricing gold’s strength as persistent while fading expectations for a near-term resurgence in bitcoin rally.
Glassnode writes that the price continues to stall below key short-term holder cost bases near $98,000, with a dense supply overhang above $100,000 – meaning there are enough sellers at higher levels to cap rallies and make a sustained move above $100k difficult in the near term.
Recent rallies have drawn out breakeven sellers and loss-driven exits from investors who accumulated during the 2025 highs, reinforcing overhead resistance and keeping upside fragile.
Market mechanics reinforce that diagnosis.
Futures volumes remain compressed, leverage deployment is subdued, and recent price movements have occurred in thin liquidity rather than alongside expanding participation.
On Polymarket, traders are assigning higher odds to gold holding above $5,500 through mid-year, while increasingly betting that bitcoin sees further consolidation before any renewed upside.
For now, gold is absorbing macro stress, while bitcoin remains in digestion mode, working through internal supply rather than responding to external catalysts.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading around $87,000, struggling to gain traction as overhead supply, thin participation, and subdued leverage keep rallies vulnerable to renewed distribution.
ETH: Ether is underperforming bitcoin, with price action reflecting weak demand, muted derivatives participation, and little sign that investors are rotating meaningfully back into higher beta crypto assets.
Gold: Gold surged to a fresh record above $5,000 an ounce as investors piled into the metal amid rising geopolitical flashpoints, sustained central bank buying, and a weaker U.S. dollar, reinforcing its role as a durable hedge against global risk.
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei slid as Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, with a stronger yen weighing on Japanese stocks while other regional benchmarks moved unevenly.
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