FOMC Governor Adriana Kugler said that the Federal Reserve should not lower interest rates “for some time” since the effects of Trump administration tariffs are starting to show up in consumer prices. She added that restrictive monetary policy is essential to keep inflationary psychology under line.
Key Quotes
- Appropriate to keep the policy rate of interest steady “for some time” given low unemployment and building price pressure from tariffs.
- Inflation remains above the 2% target, and the labour market is stable and resilient.
- A restrictive policy stance is important right now to keep inflation expectations anchored.
- Estimate of June PCE inflation is 2.5% vs. the 2% target, with core at 2.8%, both higher than in May.
- CPI shows inflation broadening across core goods.
- Many reasons to think the larger impact of tariffs on inflation is still to come.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
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