The effect on energy prices from the Iran war will impact the economy, but the size and scope of the macroeconomic shock are still unknown.
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced on Wednesday that it would hold the Federal Funds rate steady at 3.5-3.75%, as it monitors macroeconomic impacts from the ongoing war in the Middle East.
Economic activity has expanded at a “solid pace,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, adding that consumer spending remains “resilient,” while business investment continued to grow.
However, the housing sector remains weak, and the labor market shows signs of softening, Powell said, while inflation remains “somewhat elevated” above the Fed’s 2% target.
This higher inflation and weak labor market is creating a tension between the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices, Powell Said. He added that the war in the Middle East has further clouded the economic outlook. He said:
“The implications of events in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain in the near term. Higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy.”
Interest rate policy impacts risk asset markets like cryptocurrencies and equities, with lower rates stimulating asset prices and higher rates acting as a restrictive force on risk asset prices, as investment capital flows from riskier asset classes to government bonds.
Related: Fed holds rates amid higher inflation outlook: Bitcoin bounces to $72K
Traders see no chance of rate cuts, while analysts say liquidity will flow
97% of market participants forecast no change in interest rates at the April 2026 FOMC meeting. While 3% forecast a rate hike of 25 basis points (BPS), according to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
A rate hike of 25 basis points would spike the Federal Funds Rate to a range between 3.75% and 4.00%.
Arthur Hayes, a market analyst and co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange, said he is waiting for the Fed to slash rates before he resumes buying Bitcoin (BTC).
Hayes also said that the ongoing war between the US and Iran would likely cause the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy to finance the war.
Others, like macroeconomist Lyn Alden, say that the Federal Reserve has entered a “gradual print” phase in which new money is steadily being created, slowly raising up all asset prices.
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