EUR/USD struggles to gain traction and trades near 1.1500 in the European morning on Monday after posting small losses in the previous week. The pair’s near-term technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains intact.
Euro Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.38% | 0.53% | 0.26% | 1.40% | 2.16% | 1.68% | 1.44% | |
| EUR | -0.38% | 0.16% | -0.09% | 1.05% | 1.75% | 1.31% | 1.06% | |
| GBP | -0.53% | -0.16% | -0.30% | 0.87% | 1.60% | 1.14% | 0.83% | |
| JPY | -0.26% | 0.09% | 0.30% | 1.10% | 1.87% | 1.37% | 1.07% | |
| CAD | -1.40% | -1.05% | -0.87% | -1.10% | 0.76% | 0.27% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | -2.16% | -1.75% | -1.60% | -1.87% | -0.76% | -0.47% | -0.77% | |
| NZD | -1.68% | -1.31% | -1.14% | -1.37% | -0.27% | 0.47% | -0.30% | |
| CHF | -1.44% | -1.06% | -0.83% | -1.07% | -0.03% | 0.77% | 0.30% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Markets cling to a cautious stance to start the new week as news surrounding the Middle East conflict show no signs of a de-escalation aytime soon.
Over the weekend, Iran-backed militant group in Yemen, Houthis, entered the month-old war in the Middle East by launching missiles at Israel. Meanwhile, the Israeli military continued carrying out extensive strikes across Tehran and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that they will be expanding operations in southern Lebanon to stop Hezbollah from launching rockets.
Although United States (US) President Donald Trump told the Financial Times that discussions with Tehran were going “extremely well,” he also added that they could “take the oil in Iran.”
Crude Oil prices edge higher in the early European session and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index trades marginally lower on the day.
In the second half of the day, preliminary March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany will be watched closely by market participants. In case there is a significant increase in the annual CPI inflation rate, which stood at 1.9% in February, investors could see that as a sign that could pave the way for a policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) and help EUR/USD limit its losses.
During the American trading hours, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at the Harvard University Principles of Economics Class in Cambridge, Massachusetts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 75% chance that the Fed’s policy rate will remain unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% by end-2026, while seeing an 18% probability of a 25 basis-points hike.
In case Powell notes that they could consider rate hikes in case rising Oil prices cause persistenly high inflation, the USD could preserve its strength and make it difficult for EUR/USD to recover. Conversely, the pair could turn north if Powell dismisses the idea of tightening the policy, citing worsening labor market conditions.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1498. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as price has slipped below the rising support trend line that had been guiding the advance from the 1.1410 area, while the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) turns lower and converges toward price. The pair also trades beneath the flattening 50- and 100-period SMAs, with the 200-period SMA well above near 1.1660, reinforcing the bearish stance. Bollinger Bands contract with spot leaning toward the lower band, consistent with fading volatility but persistent downside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retreats toward 40, signaling building bearish momentum rather than an oversold condition.
Initial resistance stands at 1.1530, where the broken trend line meets the 20-period and the 50-period SMAs. A break above 1.1530 would open the way toward 1.1600 (upper Bollinger Band) ahead of 1.1660-1.1670, where a higher horizontal resistance converges with the falling 200-period SMA. On the downside, immediate support emerges at 1.1450, ahead of the 1.1410-1.1415, horizontal floor and the origin of the underlying rising trend line.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
