Outsized drop appears excessive, but there is a chance for EUR to test the 1.1540/1.1555 support zone before stabilisation can be expected. In the longer run, strong surge in downward momentum suggests EUR is likely to break the 1.1540/1.1555 support zone; the next level to watch is 1.1500, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The next level to watch is 1.1500
24-HOUR VIEW: “When EUR was at 1.1755 in the early session yesterday, we highlighted the following: ‘Upward momentum has increased slightly, and there is a chance for EUR to rise above 1.1775. The major resistance at 1.1795 is likely out of reach for now.’ However, after edging to a high of 1.1772, EUR staged a dramatic reversal, as it nose-dived to a low of 1.1584. While the outsized drop appears excessive, there is a chance for EUR to test the 1.1540/1.1555 support zone before stabilisation can be expected. Resistance levels are at 1.1630 and 1.1660.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our most recent narrative was from last Wednesday (23 Jul, spot at 1.1740), in which we indicated that the recent price action ‘indicates further EUR strength, likely toward 1.1795.’ After edging higher for a couple of days, EUR plunged unexpectedly in a sharp and abrupt reversal. EUR closed at 1.1588, down a substantial 1.29% — its second-largest one-day decline this year. The strong surge in downward momentum suggests EUR is likely to break the 1.1540/1.1555 support zone. The next level to watch is 1.1500. The strong downward momentum will remain intact as long as EUR holds below 1.1700 (‘strong resistance’ level).”
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