The Euro (EUR) is weak, down 0.7% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all of the G10 currencies with the exception of NZD, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
EUR is underperforming following US/EU trade agreement
“Markets are responding to news of a US/EU trade agreement, reached over the weekend, that will see the imposition of a 15% tariff on most US imports from the EU.”
“While positive for market sentiment and risk more broadly, the news poses a challenge for policymakers at the ECB. The central bank’s tone has recently shifted decidedly neutral, shedding a dovish bias that had been tied to trade policy uncertainty. We’ll be watching upcoming speeches for clues as to how policymakers will be responding to the latest tariff developments.”
“The medium-term bull trend remains intact but the RSI’s drift toward the neutral 50 threshold has confirmed the latest near-term shift toward a flat consolidation. Crucially, the EUR continues to trade well above the upward sloping 50 day MA (1.1566). For now, we look to near-term support at 1.1620 and see resistance at 1.1720.”
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