Key takeaways:
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Ether is outperforming Bitcoin this week, with the altcoin reclaiming $3,000.
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The ETH/BTC pair broke above its 200-day moving average, with the RSI breaking a three-year downtrend, hinting at a structural shift.
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Fractal analysis suggests ETH could surge to $18,205, with the near-term target at $4,000.
After reclaiming the $3,000 level for the first time since Feb. 1, Ether (ETH) exhibits strength in its performance relative to Bitcoin (BTC). While Bitcoin slipped to $116,500 on Tuesday, ETH posted daily gains, setting new highs at $3,090 for the week.
A potential driver behind Ether’s upward momentum is capital rotation from Bitcoin. According to analytics firm Swissblock, Bitcoin’s prior four bullish expansions lasted between 15 and 30 days. With the current rally reaching day 12, BTC profit-taking could be underway, redirecting capital toward altcoins, especially ETH.
This shift is reflected clearly in the ETH/BTC pair. The one-day ETH/BTC chart has registered a bullish break of structure for the first time since May 24, signaling a trend reversal. Notably, ETH/BTC also reclaimed a position above its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year, signaling medium- to long-term strength.
Further adding to the bullish narrative, ETH advocate Ted Pillows pointed out that the ETH/BTC weekly’s relative strength index (RSI) has broken free from a three-year downtrend. A golden cross is also looming, reinforcing the case for a structural trend change.
Combined with a drop in Bitcoin dominance, these signals collectively suggest a brewing altseason, where Ether could outperform Bitcoin in the weeks ahead.
Related: Ethereum becomes preferred treasury asset for tech-savvy firms: Ray Youssef
Can Ether rally 1,110% this cycle?
Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader posted a compelling fractal analysis suggesting that Ether (ETH) may follow a similar trajectory to Bitcoin’s 2018–2021 market cycle. Projections indicate that the rally from April’s low of $1,550 could evolve into a 1,110% “vertical phase,” potentially pushing ETH to around $18,205.
The analysis highlights a pattern of a 63% correction followed by a 342% recovery rally, closely mirroring Bitcoin’s historical behavior during its previous bull cycle. This thesis is further reinforced by Ether’s recent 100% rebound since the second quarter, pointing toward the early stages of a fractal breakout.
However, while the pattern is visually compelling, it is essential to note that fractal analysis remains largely speculative. It lacks empirical, peer-reviewed validation, and its interpretive nature makes exact outcomes difficult to predict. Despite these limitations, the historical parallels continue to fuel optimism among bullish ETH supporters.
Adopting a more technical approach, analyst Daan Crypto said that the immediate target for ETH remains $4,000 after it entered the upper half of an 18-month cycle range. In an X post, the trader mentioned,
“$ETH Has moved into the upper half of its massive cycle range. $2.8K & $4K are the only levels you’ll be needing on the higher timeframe. Anything else is noise in my opinion.”
Related: Bitcoin‘s ‘most reliable reversal pattern’ hints at BTC price rally toward $160K
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
