Crypto analyst Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow on X) argues that DOGE remains in a long-duration advance that has not yet delivered its terminal impulse.
In a video analysis published on October 1, the analyst lays out a multi-cycle framework built on logarithmic charting, Elliott Wave structure, and Fibonacci extensions, concluding that a run toward roughly $4 per coin is the most probable outcome of the current bull phase. “It’s all math,” he says, adding that liquidity dynamics and market structure—not simplistic notions of market capitalization—will determine how far the move extends.
Dogecoin To $4?
The analyst opens by dispelling social-media speculation about his identity—“even though I sound like Elon Musk, I’m not Elon Musk. I’m just a random cat”—before pivoting to the core claim: the long-term Dogecoin chart on a log scale shows three pronounced rounding-bottom cycles, each resolving higher, with the third now in progress.
He characterizes the present structure as a sequence of cup-and-handle formations within that broader rounding base. “During this round of bottoms, we keep on having these kinds of cups and handle type patterns. And every single time when you have a handle… people get extremely, extremely bitter and sad. And I’ve just been buying the handle all the way down,” he says, noting his accumulation began “years” ago and that subsequent pullbacks remained buying opportunities within the cycle view.
At the center of the thesis is an Elliott Wave roadmap that treats the 2021 mania as Wave Three, a prolonged corrective phase as Wave Four, and the emerging uptrend as the start of Wave Five. The analyst back-tests the structure using Fibonacci retracements and extensions on a log chart. He highlights that Wave Two retraced to the 0.5 level—“a common retracement for wave two”—while the Wave Three top aligned with a 1.618 extension of Wave One, the classic marker of an extended third wave. From there, the market corrected to approximately the 0.618 retracement—a textbook anchor for a Wave Four pullback—before beginning the present advance.
Because Wave Three already extended to 1.618, he argues Wave Five should be shorter in relative terms, making hyper-extended targets less likely. Using the log-scale Fibonacci ladder from the Wave Four base, he proposes a target corridor between the 1.272 and 1.618 extensions, with the latter around $4.13 emerging as his base case. “I think anywhere from 1.272, 1.414, 1.618 would be a reasonable target with the most likely scenario… the 1.618, which is going to be $4.13,” he explains, while allowing for two alternative outcomes—a truncated fifth that stalls near the prior high around $0.76, or a more subdued reach to the 1.272/1.414 zone.
The log-scale context is central to his methodology. He cautions that linear arithmetic with nominal prices can lead analysts astray when evaluating multi-order-of-magnitude cycles. He also emphasizes a practical trigger level within the current structure: “once it pushes through 33 cents, it’s going to hit some of the higher targets.” In his view, DOGE found support near a 1.236–1.272 region on the log ladder and is attempting to reassert itself above the 1.618 band—an area he frames as a pivotal resistance-turned-launchpad during prior cycle advances.
The Math Behind It
Anticipating skepticism around the implied market capitalization—roughly half a trillion dollars at $4—Cantonese Cat argues that cap-table arithmetic is routinely misinterpreted as a funding requirement rather than a reflection of marginal pricing under prevailing liquidity. “I think a lot of people think that you have to have $100 billion to pump Doge to $100 billion market cap. That’s not how it works,” he says.
Instead, he attributes the path of least resistance to the interplay of derivatives, credit conditions, leverage, and the broader liquidity regime. “If you have a liquidity condition, if they keep printing money, if the market cycle supports this, you don’t need half a trillion dollars to push Doge to half a trillion dollar market cap.”
He concedes that the May 2021 peak involved “a lot of irrational exuberance” but contends that similar dynamics could recur. “Money is what it is. It is an abstract concept. It is based on derivatives, is based on leverage, is based on market condition, is based on liquidity. As far as I’m concerned, just go with the flow.”
There are important caveats embedded in his call. He stresses that Wave Five targets on a log scale resist the kind of linear add-ons some traders use, and he underscores path dependency: invalidations can emerge if DOGE fails to reclaim and hold key bands or if macro liquidity tightens materially. He also notes supply dilution—Doge’s ongoing issuance—though he treats it as a secondary consideration in a sentiment- and liquidity-driven supercycle.
The alternative outcomes he outlines are explicit: a truncated fifth near $0.76 would mark a conservative terminal, while a stall at 1.272 or 1.414 would still deliver a materially higher high without matching Wave Three’s extension.
Even with those guardrails, the thrust of the analysis is unequivocal. “The major impulse of wave five hasn’t really quite happened quite just yet,” he says, framing the market as early in the terminal advance of a multi-year structure. He reinforces that his framework is empirical rather than aspirational. “Use your imagination, follow technicals, it’s all math,” he concludes.
For Dogecoin, that math points to a breakout above $0.33 as the next near-term tell and a probabilistic arc that terminates near the $4 handle if liquidity conditions cooperate.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.254.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
