West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trimmed a little bit off the top of barrel bids on Thursday, falling around $0.95 per barrel, or 1.5%. Crude Oil markets saw fresh tensions in recent weeks as the US and Iran circle each other around the policy negotiation table, with a tit-for-tat exchange of cancellation threats fueling a brief upswing in barrel bids.
Both the US and Iran, after some sputtering cancellation threats, have reaffirmed that both sides will be meeting on Friday to discuss a variety of topics, including nuclear talks and trade. With both sides allowing themselves to be convinced by nobody in particular to return to their negotiation chairs, energy markets are easing off of their bids and allowing WTI prices to ease back into the low side.
WTI daily chart
WTI price forecast
In the daily chart, WTI US OIL trades at $63.14. Price stands above the rising 50-day EMA at $60.27 and the mildly ascending 200-day EMA at $62.23, keeping the near-term tone firm. The 50-day EMA continues to grind higher toward the 200-day, although a bullish crossover has not materialized. The slow stochastic has cooled to 67.15 after an overbought episode, pointing to momentum digestion rather than trend reversal.
Holding above the 200-day EMA at $62.23 would sustain the upside bias, while a close beneath it could expose a retracement toward the 50-day EMA at $60.27. A recovery in the oscillator back above 80 would pave the way for trend extension, whereas a roll-over toward the mid-50s would favour prolonged consolidation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
