The USD/CAD pair edges lower to near 1.3620 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Escalating tensions in the Middle East after the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reports missiles and drone threats from Iran underpin the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD).
Reuters reported on Monday that Iran attacked the UAE with a barrage of missiles and drones after the US launched a major operation to wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the current situation in the critical waterway makes it “clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis.”
Iran has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz for weeks now, triggering the biggest oil supply disruption in history and boosting crude oil prices. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and higher crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
On the other hand, hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials could help limit the Greenback’s losses. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Sunday that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out, particularly as inflation risks remain elevated due to rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict.
The US April ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report will be published later on Tuesday. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could provide some support to the USD against the CAD.
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
