The latest release of the Fed’s meeting Minutes offered a wide-ranging look at how policymakers are weighing the path ahead. From rate-cut debates to concerns about inflation, market stability and the composition of the bank’s balance sheet, the discussion showed a Committee that remains cautious, divided at the margins, and sensitive to shifting economic risks.
Key Quotes
Most participants judged further rate reductions would likely be appropriate over time, but several indicated they did not necessarily view a reduction in december as appropriate.
Policymakers were divided over support for that meeting’s rate cut and over whether a December cut would be appropriate.
Several participants assessed a December rate cut could be appropriate if the economy evolved as they expected.
Most participants noted further rate cuts could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as a lack of commitment to the 2% inflation objective.
Many participants suggested that under their outlooks it would be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year.
Many participants favoured October’s rate cut, though some among them said they could have supported no change.
Several participants highlighted the possibility of a disorderly fall in stock prices, especially in the event of an abrupt reassessment of AI-related prospects.
Almost all participants noted it was appropriate to conclude the balance sheet reduction programme on December 1.
Most participants favoured a Fed portfolio matching the composition of treasuries outstanding.
The Fed staff economic outlook for the October meeting saw modestly stronger real GDP growth through 2028 relative to the September forecast.
Some participants favoured a larger-than-proportional share of T-Bills, citing the benefits of greater flexibility.
Market reaction to the FOMC Minutes
The Greenback keeps its march north unabated in the wake of the publication of the FOMC Minutes, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around the psychological 100.00 region amid marked gains and challenging its key 200-day SMA at the same time.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.48% | 0.66% | 0.88% | 0.52% | 0.74% | 1.19% | 0.76% | |
| EUR | -0.48% | 0.17% | 0.40% | 0.04% | 0.26% | 0.70% | 0.27% | |
| GBP | -0.66% | -0.17% | 0.23% | -0.13% | 0.09% | 0.54% | 0.11% | |
| JPY | -0.88% | -0.40% | -0.23% | -0.35% | -0.13% | 0.34% | -0.11% | |
| CAD | -0.52% | -0.04% | 0.13% | 0.35% | 0.22% | 0.67% | 0.23% | |
| AUD | -0.74% | -0.26% | -0.09% | 0.13% | -0.22% | 0.44% | 0.02% | |
| NZD | -1.19% | -0.70% | -0.54% | -0.34% | -0.67% | -0.44% | -0.43% | |
| CHF | -0.76% | -0.27% | -0.11% | 0.11% | -0.23% | -0.02% | 0.43% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the FOMC Minutes of the October 28-29 meeting at 13:15 GMT.
- The Minutes of the Fed’s October 28-29 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday.
- Details surrounding the discussions on the decision to cut the policy rate by 25 bps will be scrutinised by investors.
- Markets are split on whether the Fed will cut the policy rate again in December.
The Minutes of the United States (US) Federal Reserve’s (Fed) October 28–29 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The US central bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to the range of 3.75%-4% at that meeting, but Fed Governor Stephen Miran voted in favor of lowering the fed funds rate by 50 bps, while Kansas Fed President Jeff Schmid preferred no change.
Jerome Powell and company opted to reduce the policy rate in October
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut the interest rate by 25 bps in October, as widely anticipated. In the policy statement, the Fed acknowledged that job gains slowed and the unemployment rate edged up, but reiterated that inflation remained “somewhat elevated.” Additionally, the Fed announced that it will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1.
In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that one more 25-bps rate cut in December “is not a foregone conclusion,” and added there were strongly differing opinions among policymakers on what the next step could be.
TD Securities analysts expect the FOMC Minutes to reveal the extent of the internal debate that led to a hawkish cut in October. “Since the meeting, the hawks have gained the upper-hand in public remarks amid a lack of official data releases. The end-of-QT October announcement will also get airtime in the minutes, as we expect reserve management purchases to be announced at the January FOMC,” they said.
When will FOMC Minutes be released and how could it affect the US Dollar?
The FOMC will release the Minutes of the October 28-29 policy meeting at 19:00 GMT on Wednesday.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully pricing in about a 50% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in December, down from nearly 70% a week earlier. This market positioning suggests that the US Dollar (USD) faces two-way near-term risk.
In case the publication suggests that policymakers are willing to keep the policy rate unchanged to buy time to assess the impact of the government shutdown on the economy, investors could lean toward a policy hold in December and allow the USD to gain some strength against its rivals. Conversely, the USD could have a difficult time staying resilient against other major currencies if Fed officials voice growing concerns over the labor market conditions while adopting an optimistic view on the inflation outlook.
Nevertheless, the market reaction to the FOMC Minutes could remain short-lived, as investors are likely to wait for the economic data backlog to clear before positioning themselves for a Fed rate cut or a policy hold in December.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares a brief outlook for the USD Index:
“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart edges higher to 58 after rebounding from the midline, reflecting increasing bullish momentum. On the upside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns as a key resistance level near 101.30. In case the USD Index makes a daily close above this level and starts using it as support, technical buyers could take action. In this scenario, 101.40 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the January-July downtrend) could be seen as the next resistance level.”
“Looking south, the first support area could be seen between 98.20 and 97.70 (100-day SMA, 50-day SMA, round number, 20-day SMA) ahead of 96.25 (end-point of the downtrend).”
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
