Bitcoin is unlikely to reach $200,000 this year as buying volume isn’t increasing enough to keep pushing the price higher, according to a crypto analyst.
It comes after several industry executives have recently speculated that Bitcoin (BTC) will soon hit $200,000.
“How on earth can we be going up when there is no volume?” Glassnode lead analyst James Check said in an interview on Tuesday.
$200,000 by year-end is “a big move”
“$200,000 in six months is a big move — that’s a big move,” Check said. He added that it would almost double Bitcoin’s current market capitalization of $2.38 trillion, given its price of $119,541 at the time of publication, according to Nansen.
“Could it happen? Absolutely. Is it likely to happen? Very improbable.”
“Until I see that volume kick in, until I feel a bit more confident, I am certainly not going to put on any levered positions,” Check said. “I’m probably not going to go out on the risk curve until I see that the market is stabilized.”
Check said that the first stage of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 was it surpassing $120,000, which it did on July 14, but he claimed it still has multiple stages left.
“Then we gotta get to $130, and 40, 50 [thousand], and it’s one thing to get there, it’s another thing to stay there,” he explained.
He warned that if Bitcoin rises too fast without strong, stable support, the price could fall just as quickly. “You need to follow through; otherwise, you’re trading through air, and you’re going to trade like it’s air on the way back down,” he said.
However, Check acknowledged that “no one knows” where Bitcoin’s price is headed.
Despite that, he remains bullish, with most of his net worth in Bitcoin, and believes that in five years, it will be “well and truly” above the $200,000 price level.
Bitcoin to $200,000 in 2025 a popular call
Meanwhile, several other analysts are optimistic of Bitcoin’s chances of reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025, with some making the call as far back as late last year.
In May, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, said Bitcoin would reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to a supply shock from heightened institutional demand.
Anonymous analyst apsk32 also sees a $200,000 target in 2025, pointing to long-term trend patterns.
Related: Bitcoin liquidity wars carry on, but BTC price target remains $140K
“Looking at two-year segments centered today, 4, 8, and 12 years ago. Price scaling performed using the power curve trendline. Expecting $200,000+ Bitcoin in Q4,” apsk32 said.
Bernstein Research has had the $200,000 forecast by the end of 2025 in mind since October 2024, backed by increased institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs and BTC treasury companies.
However, crypto analyst Rekt Capital said earlier this month that Bitcoin may only have a few months of price expansion left in the cycle, especially if it follows the same historical pattern from 2020.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
