Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin futures open interest has climbed +7% in 30 days, suggesting a bullish shift in sentiment.
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A Bitcoin market momentum indicator shows that long-side buy pressure is rising.
Bitcoin (BTC) futures showed renewed strength as their aggregated open interest (OI) surged by +7% over the past 30 days, marking the first sustained uptick since the May through June 12% drawdown. This revival signals a potential shift in sentiment, with traders increasingly positioning for the upside as their appetite for volume and leverage rises.
Rising OI with price typically suggests bullish momentum as fresh capital enters the market to support an uptrend. Still, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. cautioned that a confirmed breakout may require OI growth to exceed +10%, ideally paired with expanding trading volumes to validate the move.
Additionally, Adler Jr. noted that the Bitcoin Futures Market Power v2.0 indicator, which combines OI, funding rates and taker-side aggression, currently sits at 22,000. While far from euphoric levels seen in past rallies with scores above 80,000, the metric reflects growing long-side pressure and a strengthening bullish consensus without signs of overheating. The indicator reflects a positive score for the first time since May, while a similar score in the 20,000 range signaled the price bottom in April.
Bitcoin net futures positioning also flipped positive, with net long exposure rising to $27.4 million. This net bullish stance has held above zero for over 24 hours, suggesting that even as BTC consolidates near $108,000, traders are gradually stacking long positions in anticipation of a bullish breakout.
Related: Bitcoin Bollinger Bands reach critical point ahead of ‘upside breakout’
Bitcoin may see “equal lows” dip below $107,000
After closing its strongest weekly candle, Bitcoin faced a minor pullback to $108,000 from $109,500, forming a double top on lower timeframes. Despite the dip, BTC maintains intraday support at the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the one-hour chart.
However, a sweep of equal lows near $107,300 remains probable before any upside continuation. Equal lows refer to price points where BTC has formed identical support levels multiple times, typically signaling resting liquidity that traders could target for a deeper move. In this case, BTC’s prior low at $107,300 aligns with an earlier liquidity block, reinforcing the likelihood of a stop-loss hunt.
A move below $107,000 could fill the nearby fair value gap between $107,000 and $106,300. A swift bullish reaction would be pivotal below $107,000, marked by strong buy absorption, which should send BTC back above $108,000. Failure to do so could open the door to deeper losses at $105,000.
Conversely, a strong defense of $108,000 followed by a clean break above $109,500 would invalidate the equal highs retest narrative and set the stage for a rally above $112,000 this week.
Related: ‘False move’ to $105K? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
