Traders are betting on a Trump–Xi breakthrough and a dovish Fed pivot to revive “Uptober,” though markets remain wary that rare-earth restrictions and the U.S. shutdown could spoil the rally.
Oct 28, 2025, 2:19 a.m.
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Bitcoin hovered near $114,000 and Ethereum traded around $4,120 early Tuesday Hong Kong time as markets entered one of the most consequential weeks of the year, defined by U.S.–China diplomacy, a Federal Reserve policy pivot, and a packed schedule of Big Tech earnings.
Polymarket traders are betting heavily on a breakthrough, pricing a 92% chance that the U.S. and China will sign a tariff agreement by November 10 following a weekend round of constructive talks in Malaysia.
The framework, which could be finalized when Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping at Thursday’s APEC summit in Seoul, helped lift risk appetite across equities and crypto alike. Bitcoin briefly touched $116,200 on Sunday before a modest pullback, while miners and AI-linked stocks including Hut 8, CleanSpark, and IREN gained 2–3%.
Still, not all signals point to lasting détente. A separate Polymarket contract assigns just a 36% probability that Beijing will lift its rare-earth export ban by year’s end, suggesting investors expect tactical cooperation on tariffs but continued competition over strategic resources.
The gap between those two probabilities underscores the market’s belief that Thursday’s summit will produce a political win, not a structural reset.
In its latest market note, Singapore-based QCP Capital said the Trump–Xi outcome “may shape crypto’s near-term path more than Wednesday’s Fed rate decision.” The firm highlighted speculation that the Fed could soon end its three-year quantitative tightening program, a shift that would inject liquidity back into markets and support risk assets.
“Any signal of that coming sooner rather than later would re-anchor liquidity expectations,” QCP wrote.
For now, BTC remains flat on the month, jeopardizing its seven-year streak of positive Octobers known as “Uptober.”
The prolonged U.S. government shutdown, now at 26 days, has clouded the Fed’s outlook, QCP argued in its note, by limiting the flow of economic data, while investors await earnings reports from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Google for clues about consumer resilience.
Derivatives data show BTC and ETH risk reversals turning neutral after weeks of defensive positioning, indicating traders are less fearful of near-term downside.
Yet, as QCP cautioned, a clean bullish resumption is unlikely until BTC reclaims $116,000 to close the month. With politics, policy, and liquidity converging, crypto is set for a volatile week that could either extend or finally end “Uptober’s” winning streak.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin briefly climbed to $116,200 over the weekend before easing back to $114,000, consolidating near cycle highs as traders awaited clarity from the Trump–Xi summit and the Federal Reserve.
ETH: Ethereum held steady around $4,120, mirroring bitcoin’s consolidation as investors weighed macro catalysts and awaited confirmation of renewed liquidity from the Fed.
Gold: Gold rebounded slightly to $4,021 an ounce after plunging below $4,000 on Monday, as optimism over U.S.–China trade talks and rising Treasury yields dampened demand for haven assets.
Nikkei 225: Asian stocks slipped Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.38% and Topix 0.49%, as investors awaited U.S. President Donald Trump’s first meeting with new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
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What to know:
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