Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s broader uptrend and on-chain data suggest the market remains in an expansion phase.
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Strong dip-buying by “sharks,” and key trendline support point to another BTC rebound.
Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to recover a day after traders witnessed the biggest single-day wipeout on record, with over $5.39 billion in leveraged positions liquidated in 24 hours, which is twice as large as the “COVID-19 crash” in 2020.
As of Saturday, BTC’s price had rebounded by 8.50% after dropping to its local low at around $103,000. At the time of writing, it remains down 11% from its record high of $126,300, set earlier in the week.
Can Bitcoin’s recovery extend further? These three charts indicate favorable technical conditions for a potential rally in the coming days or weeks.
Bitcoin uptrend unfazed by $5.39 billion wipeout
Bitcoin’s latest correction may look dramatic on lower timeframes, but zooming out reveals it’s actually milder than several past pullbacks.
On the weekly chart, BTC has dropped less than 10% so far, notably less than the 14–15% dips seen in March 2025 and July 2024, both of which were followed by strong rebounds.
Bitcoin’s price remains well within its ascending channel, a bullish structure that has guided its uptrend since mid-2023.
Buyers have stepped in each time BTC has tested the lower boundary of this channel, sparking new rallies toward the upper range.
The key level to watch now is the 20-week moving average (20-week MA) near $111,000, according to analyst Michaël van de Poppe.
Bitcoin holding above the 20-week MA support could mark a final capitulation phase, similar to the COVID-19 crash and the FTX bottom.
That would set the stage for the next major BTC uptrend to begin, with a $140,000-150,000 target for year’s end.
BTC sharks buy the dip
While many smaller traders were forced out during the $5.39 billion liquidation on Friday, medium-sized holders, also known as “sharks,” bought the dip aggressively.
The daily Shark Net Position Change, which tracks wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, has surged to 190,296, its highest level since September 2012, according to Glassnode data.
Additionally, the Bitcoin supply held by the same cohort has grown exponentially in 2025, reaching a new record high on Friday despite the price drop. This suggests that there is less panic among the more experienced investors.
Related: Bitcoin slump may rebound up to 21% in 7 days if history repeats: Economist
The wave of buying by these larger entities could lay the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next big recovery if this trend continues.
Bitcoin Bollinger Bands still “squeezing”
Bitcoin’s Friday correction could be a mid-cycle cooldown rather than the start of a long bear market, according to chartist The Great Mattsby.
Every past Bitcoin bull run ended only after its monthly Bollinger Bands, a volatility indicator, had fully expanded, as shown in the chart below.
These bands widen when market swings increase and contract when price movement slows.
In previous bull cycles, including 2013, 2018, and 2021, Bitcoin peaked precisely when those monthly bands stretched far apart, signaling overheated volatility.
Currently, however, these bands are still narrowing, or “squeezing,” which may precede further price rallies if history is any indication.
The Great Mattsby said:
Using history as our guide bear markets dont start when the monthly Bollinger Bands are still squeezing. They start at the end of their expansion
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
