- Gold price remains under some selling pressure amid reduced bets for a Fed rate cut in July.
- The USD stands firm near a two-week high and contributes to the commodity’s offered tone.
- Tariff jitter weighs on investors’ sentiment, though it does little to impress the XAU/USD bulls.
Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone heading into the European session and currently trades well below the $3,300 mark, or over a one-week low touched earlier this Wednesday. Expectations that steep US tariffs would underpin inflation in the coming months and force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady for an extended period remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, assists the US Dollar (USD) to stand firm near a two-week low and is seen as a key factor undermining the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, the global risk sentiment remains fragile on the back of growing concerns over the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, though it does little to provide any respite to the safe-haven Gold price. The XAU/USD bears, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path. Hence, the focus remains glued to FOMC meeting minutes, which, in turn, will play a key role in determining the next leg of directional move for the Greenback and the precious metal.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price seems vulnerable as traders pare Fed rate cut bets
- US President Donald Trump unnerved investors earlier this week by announcing higher tariff rates against a slew of major economies starting August 1. Moreover, Trump vowed to further escalate his trade wars on Tuesday, threatening US tariffs of up to 200% on foreign drugs and 50% on copper.
- Investors now seem convinced that US tariffs will eventually feed through into higher prices and allow the Federal Reserve to stick to its wait-and-see approach. Moreover, the upbeat US jobs report for June eased concerns about a slowing US economy, and a July Fed rate cut is completely off the table.
- This, in turn, pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond and the US Dollar to a two-week high, making the non-yielding Gold price less attractive. The USD bulls, however, seem reluctant and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed’s rate cut path before placing fresh bets.
- Meanwhile, investors are still pricing in the possibility of 50 basis points worth of Fed rate cuts by the end of this year, starting in October. Hence, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting and speeches by several Fed officials this week will be looked for more insights into the central bank’s policy outlook.
- In the meantime, Trump’s rapidly shifting stance on trade policies and worries that steep US tariffs would negatively impact the global economy keep investors on edge. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the safe-haven XAU/USD pair and limit deeper losses.
Gold price bears have the upper hand; breakdown and acceptance below $3,300 in play
The overnight failure near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal resistance on the 4-hour chart and acceptance below the $3,300 mark could be seen as a key trigger for the XAU/USD bears. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the downside. Hence, a subsequent fall towards the next relevant support near the $3,270 horizontal zone, en route to the $3,248-3,247 region or the June monthly swing low, looks like a distinct possibility.
On the flip side, attempted recovery beyond the $3,310 immediate hurdle might now face some hurdle near the $3,326 area. Any further move up might continue to attract fresh sellers near the 100-SMA on the 4-hour chart, currently pegged near the $3,340 region. Some follow-through buying, leading to subsequent strength beyond the $3,359-3,360 supply zone, could trigger a short-covering move and allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,400 round figure.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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