Risk assets would take a significant hit if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway supplying 20% of the global oil trade.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) remains resilient, despite the recent Israeli airstrike on Iran, but could see a sharp correction in the short-term if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz — a critical route for oil shipments — impacting all risk-on assets, according to Coin Bureau founder and market analyst Nic Puckrin.
Bitcoin’s short-term price action “depends on how things develop today and over the weekend,” in the Israel-Iran conflict, the analyst wrote on Friday, adding:
“The biggest risk is if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, which ferries nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply. If it does, oil will see a massive spike, and risk assets will fall off a cliff. And, if this happens over the weekend, the market that trades 24/7 — crypto — will once again take the hit.”
However, Puckrin stressed that Bitcoin’s long-term price outlook is less influenced by geopolitics and more tied to the declining value of the US dollar, which just hit its lowest level in three years — suggesting long-term upside for the supply-capped asset.
Bitcoin continues to be closely monitored by retail and institutional investors as an emerging macro asset. Traders and analysts have mixed market theories on BTC, as it straddles the line between risk-on and a store of value asset while maturing as an asset class.
Related: Bitcoin mirrors 80% rally setup that preceded 2024 Israel-Iran conflict
Long-term Bitcoin hodlers continue accumulating despite macro and geopolitical uncertainty
Long-term Bitcoin holders continue to accumulate BTC despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and the uptick in geopolitical tensions, according to CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci.
The analyst said that accumulation addresses, defined as wallets that have never sold a single Satoshi and have been active during the last seven years, recorded an inflow of 30,784 BTC, valued at roughly $3.3 billion on June 11 — the highest daily inflow for 2025.
“After this spike, the total BTC held by accumulation addresses hit 2.91 million BTC. Their average entry price now sits around $64,000,” Kesmeci wrote.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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