Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6650.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6450.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6450.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6650.
The AUD/USD exchange rate rose after the relatively strong Chinese economic data and as traders waited for key US economic data and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. It rose to 0.6540, its highest point since November 12.
Key US economic data and Fed decision
The AUD/USD exchange rate continued rising after economic data showed that China’s economy did well last month. Its retail sales jumped by 6.4% in May from 5.1% in April, while the unemployment rate improved to 5%.
China’s industrial production rose by 5.8% in May from 6.1% in April. While this was a pullback, the data was better than the expected 5.7%. These numbers mean that the Chinese economy is doing relatively well as it deals with Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The AUD/USD exchange rate rose ahead of key US economic data. Economists expect the data to show that US retail sales slowed from 5.2% in April to 4.9% in May because of tariffs.
The US will also publish the latest industrial and manufacturing production, export and import prices, and business inventories data.
These numbers will come a day before the Federal Reserve delivers its monetary policy decision. Economists are unanimous that the bank will leave interest rates unchanged between 4.25% and 4.50% and maintain a wait-and-see approach.
Leaving rates unchanged will be the opposite of what Trump wants, as he has called the bank to cut by a full point. Trump argues that high interest rates were putting the US at a disadvantage against other countries like China and the European Union.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD exchange rate rose to 0.6540, forming a bullish engulfing pattern. This pattern comprises of a big bullish candlestick pattern that follows a smaller bearish candle.
The pair has moved slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level at 0.6553. It has moved above the 50-day moving average, a sign that bulls are in control.
The AUD/USD pair is approaching the upper side of the ascending channel. Therefore, the exchange rate will likely have a bullish breakout as bulls target the key resistance at 0.6600. A move above that level will point to more gains to 0.6650.
The alternative scenario is where the pair pulls back and retests the lower side of the channel at 0.6455.
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Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.
