Key points:
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Bitcoin lacks volatility catalysts thanks to a US public holiday and a Federal Reserve “nothingburger,” crypto market participants say.
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US trade war deadlines begin to take center stage for risk assets.
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BTC price action is still expected to exit its narrow range this month.
Bitcoin (BTC) turned sluggish on June 19 as analysis picked out key crypto volatility dates.
July, August bring new crypto downside risks
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD acting in a narrow range while failing to secure $105,000 as support.
A combination of geopolitical uncertainty, coupled with stagnant Federal Reserve policy, as well as the US Juneteenth holiday keeping stock markets closed, contributed to sideways BTC price action.
On the topic of the Fed, which opted to hold interest rates steady at its June 18 meeting, trading firm QCP Capital underscored officials’ unwillingness to move quickly.
“Officials reiterated their preference for a ‘wait and see’ approach, pending greater clarity on inflation’s trajectory,” it wrote in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers.
Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets still favoring a rate cut in September.
QCP instead focused on future deadlines in the ongoing US trade war as the likely source of crypto and risk-asset volatility.
“Negotiations remain stagnant, and leaks have become repetitive. Markets may now be less reactive to incremental tariff headlines,” it argued.
Key dates include July 14, when the EU is due to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods, and Aug. 12, when the tariff pause on China expires.
“These upcoming dates could inject episodic downside volatility into risk assets,” QCP added, noting that a “stable outcome” in China’s case was still more likely.
Bitcoin shrugs off FOMC “nothingburger”
On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin traders continued to wait for a volatility catalyst to shake up the range.
Related: $112K BTC was not ‘bull market peak’: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades saw good odds of this occurring in the second half of June, or even this week.
“Still hanging around the $105K area which is the middle of the monthly range and right at the monthly open,” he told X followers in part of his latest analysis.
“Price has been compressing and it’s clear that the market is waiting for a big move to occur. The statistics still heavily favor a further displacement this week and especially this month.”
Fellow trader Skew joined those seeing a potential trip to take bid liquidity at around $103,000.
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) June 19, 2025
Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe meanwhile, described the Fed event as a “nothingburger.”
“I suppose we’ll see a test of $106K and breakout north in the coming days,” he predicted on the day.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
