My previous AUD/USD signal on 11th June produced a breakeven short trade from the bearish rejection of the resistance level at $0.6517.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.50%
Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short trade following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6494, $0.6522, or $0.6558.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long trade following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6462, $0.6450, or $0.6423.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast on Friday last week, I wrote that this currency pair was looking likely to make an eventual strong bullish breakout beyond $0.6531.
I was wrong about this, the price failed to get above that level, and then a few days later broke out before quickly falling back.
The reason why a bearish price movement has prevailed is mostly due to the resilience of the US Dollar, which has gained some ground over recent days as the Federal Reserve states it is in no hurry to cut its interest rate. Another factor is the growing probability that the US will soon join the Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program which has been ongoing for almost one week, with the conflict then likely to escalate into a regional war with Iranian assaults – if they have the capability left – on assets throughout the Middle East and possibly even Cyprus.
These factors have increased risk-off sentiment, and it is now hard to see what can change that in the near term.
As a key risk barometer pair, I am therefore bearish here and would look to take short trades following any rejection of a key resistance level which might set up over the day.
Although it is a public holiday today in the USA with exchanges closed, as this is the Forex market, we are still likely to see enough volume over the day to make trading viable.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the AUD or the USD.
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