Key points:
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Bitcoin price is stuck in a range, with overhead resistance at $106,000 continuing to obstruct a rally past $112,000.
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Traders are in a wait-and-see mood due to geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Bitcoin (BTC) seems to have paused its bull run, with the price consolidating within a roughly $10,000 range over the last five weeks, as the all-time high around $112,000 remains a stubborn barrier.
Let’s look at some of the reasons why the Bitcoin price remains stuck.
Bitcoin price in limbo amid geopolitical tensions
Rising geopolitical instability in the Middle East, including the recent escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, has created a risk-averse environment for investors. Traditional safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasurys have seen inflows, with the price of gold nearing all-time highs earlier this week.
On the other hand, risk-on assets like Bitcoin face reduced demand, with BTC dropping 3.6% since Israel’s first attack on Iran last week.
The hacking of Iran-based cryptocurrency exchange Nobitex for $81 million by a pro-Israel hacker group added to the headwinds. This politically motivated attack highlights Bitcoin’s and crypto’s potential vulnerability in geopolitical cyberwarfare.
Although Bitcoin is often touted as “digital gold,” its correlation with risk assets like equities means it frequently underperforms during geopolitical crises. This macro backdrop has stifled Bitcoin’s ability to rally to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin cools as Fed leaves rates unchanged
The US Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision on June 18 to maintain the interest rates at 4.25%–4.50% has dampened Bitcoin’s bullish momentum. The Fed’s cautious stance, driven by persistent inflation (core PCE at 2.8%) and concerns over tariff-induced price pressures under President Donald Trump’s policies, has reduced expectations for rate cuts in 2025.
🇺🇸 UPDATE: Fed Chair Powell says inflation effects may take time to assess and expects a meaningful rise in coming months. pic.twitter.com/QoEpTQB1sD
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) June 18, 2025
The FOMC’s updated “dot plot” now projects only two 25-basis-point cuts for 2025, down from four previously, with markets pricing in just a 58.4% chance of a cut in September, per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
This restrictive monetary policy strengthens the US dollar, pressuring risk assets like Bitcoin. Combined with geopolitical tensions, the circumstances under which the US Federal Reserve is fighting inflation are extraordinary, according to commentators.
Related: Bitcoin supply squeeze intensifies as ‘ancient’ holders eclipse newly mined BTC
“This is no ordinary inflation fight,” said Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital in a June 18 Telegram note.
“Our base case is that the Fed may adopt a more cautious tone in its September, potentially indicating a single rate cut for 2025, in contrast to market pricing,” the firm explained, adding:
“Such a revision would likely pressure risk assets, including Bitcoin and broader digital assets, as liquidity expectations are pared back.”
Key trendlines pin down BTC price
Bitcoin’s price is trapped below the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $106,000, the 50 SMA at $106,040 and the 200 SMA at $106,400, which act as significant resistance as shown in the chart below.
This convergence has compressed price action into a narrow range between $103,600 and $105,500 since June 17, with the moving averages repeatedly rejecting attempts to push past $106,000.
Cointelegraph reported that a break above the moving averages could push the BTC/USD higher to confront resistance from the $112,000 all-time high.
The relative strength index, or RSI, is moving close to the midline at 46, indicating market indecision, while low trading volume on exchanges like Binance underscores a lack of conviction.
Additionally, the looming bearish cross of the 50-period SMA below the 100-period SMA in the four-hour time frame signals weakening short-term momentum.
This technical setup could prevent Bitcoin from gaining the momentum needed to move higher and challenge $112,000, keeping it pinned in consolidation.
In the near term, however, BTC price could see a short squeeze from favorable conditions in the derivatives market.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
