The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Iran seeks talks with the United States (US) and Israel, and sends messages via Arab intermediaries to end hostilities, per Reuters.
According to the report, Iran signals that it wants to de-escalate hostilities with Iran and privately says that it will resume talks over its nuclear program if the US stays out of the fight.
Market reaction
This headline seems to be helping the market mood improve. At the time of press, the S&P 500 was up more than 1%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index was last seen losing 0.4% at 97.75. Additionally, crude oil prices extend the decline, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate losing more than 6% on the day near $68.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD eases from tops, back below 1.1600
Following an early push past the 1.1600 barrier, EUR/USD now deflates to the 1.1580 following a tepid recovery attempt in the Greenback. So far, the US Dollar remains on the defensive on the back of poor regional data releases and the generalised risk-on sentiment.
GBP/USD recedes to 1.3600, USD regains balance
GBP/USD now faces some renewed selling orders and slips back to the 1.3600 zone on Monday. Cable’s decent gains come on the heels of rising pessimism about the US Dollar and encouraging geopolitical news.
Gold treads water around $3,400 on risk-on mood
Gold extends its bearish performance on Monday, hovering around the $3,400 region per troy ounce amid improved risk sentiment and easing geopolitical jitters. However, a softer US Dollar and falling US yields provide some cushion against further downside.
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